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Barry Norman

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/JPY is trading at 131.19 coming near its lowest level in months as the euro continues to ease as Mario Draghi pushes his stimulus package ahead of the ECB meeting in two weeks. The Japanese yen bounced back a bit after falling on weak GDP numbers after Japan fell back into a recession. The Bank of Japan continues to move away from additional stimulus but might be forced to help the economy rebound at its November meeting.

Mario Draghi has dropped another hint that the European Central Bank is readying more measures to boost the Eurozone’s recovery, saying there were signs a major measure of inflation would take longer to return to policymakers’ target.

The ECB president, who has already said the central bank will re-examine the case for more monetary easing in early December, told the European Parliament that “signs of a sustained turnaround in core inflation have somewhat weakened.”

Exports are falling despite the euro’s decline because slowing growth in developing economies means many of Europe’s traditional customers aren’t prepared to buy at any price.

At the same time, domestic consumption helped offset some of the export slack because low fuel prices have boosted purchasing power. Continued attempts to drag down the euro’s value, which will push up prices for energy imports, mean chasing phantom exports at the expense of real consumption.

The Bank of Japan is in the same position as the ECB but the head of the bank thinks the massive stimulus plan the bank launched in October 2014 should be showing results.

Japan’s economy contracted 0.8% during the third quarter and 0.2% during the second quarter, fitting the technical definition of a recession, or two back-to-back quarters of a shrinking economy.

  Though he says more monetary stimulus should be a “sooner rather than later” conversation.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our  weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

API Weekly Crude Oil

-0.482M

1.800M

6.300M

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

  AUD

 

Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q3)

0.6%

0.6%

0.6%

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks 

 

 

 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

PPI Input (QoQ) (Q3)

 

 

-0.3%

 

 

  JPY

 

Adjusted Trade Balance

 

-0.38T

-0.36T

 

 

  JPY

 

Exports (YoY) (Oct)

 

-2.1%

0.6%

 

 

  JPY

 

Trade Balance (Oct)

 

-292B

-115B

 

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Press Conference  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German Buba President Weidmann

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)

 

-0.5%

1.7%

 

 

  GBP

 

Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct)

 

3.9%

5.9%

 

 

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)

 

-0.5%

1.9%

 

 

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct)

 

4.2%

6.5%

 

 

  GBP

 

CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Nov)

 

-10

-18

 

 

  EUR

 

Monetary Policy Meeting  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

271K

276K

 

 

  USD

 

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

 

-1.0

-4.5

 

 

  USD

 

Philly Fed Employment (Nov)

 

 

-1.7

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks 

 

 

 

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 19 10:30 Spain 0.25% Apr 2018 Bono, 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono, 5.4% Jan 2023

Nov 19 10:50 France Eur 7-8bn; 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT, 0.25% Nov 2020 OAT, 2.25%

Nov 19 11:50 France Eur 1-1.5bn; 0.25% Jul 2024, 1.85% Jul 2027, 3.15% Jul 2032

Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov

Nov 23 12:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

Nov 23 N/A US Holds 2-year note auction

Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov

Nov 24 N/A Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

Nov 24 N/A US Holds 5-year note auction

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 2-year FRN auction

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 7-year note auction

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

 

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