European Equities: China and U.S Inflation Figures and Yields in Focus

Economic data from Germany provided support on a relatively quiet day on the economic data front.

Germany’s trade balance widened by more than had been expected, supported by strong exports to China.

The figures followed impressive February trade figures from China over the weekend that had set the majors up for Monday’s rally.

The Stats

It was a relatively busy day on the economic calendar on Tuesday.  German trade data and finalized GDP numbers for the Eurozone were in focus.

French nonfarm payroll figures for the 4^th quarter had a muted impact on the markets, however.

Germany

In January, Germany’s trade surplus widened from an upwardly revised €16.4bn to €22.2bn. Economists had forecast a surplus of €16.4bn.

According to Destatis,

• In January, exports rose by 1.4% to €98.1bn on the previous month. Exports were down by 8.0% on the same month a year earlier, however.
• Imports fell by 4.7% to €83.8bn on the previous month. On the same month a year earlier, imports were down 9.8%.

By Region and Country

• German goods exports to EU member states fell by 6.0%, with imports falling by 5.9%.
• Goods exports to euro area countries fell by 6.5%, with imports from euro area falling by 7.4%.
• To EU countries outside of the euro area, exports fell by 4.8%, with imports falling by 2.7%.
• Exports of goods to outside of the EU amounted to €43.6bn, while imports from these countries totaled €39.5bn.
• Compared with January 2020, exports to third countries declined by 10.3%. Imports were down by 13.9%.
• With the UK, exports slid by 29.0% compared with the same month last year. German imports from the UK were down 56.2%.
• Exports to China increased by 3.1% over the same period, however, while exports to the U.S fell by 6.2%.

The Eurozone

For the Eurozone, the economy contracted by 0.7% in the 4^th quarter, which was revised down from a 2^nd estimate 0.6%.

In the 3^rd quarter, the economy had expanded by 12.4%.

Year-on-year, the economy contracted by 4.9%, which was an upward revision from a 2^nd estimate 5.0%. In the 3^rd quarter, the economy had contracted by 4.3%, year-on-year.

According to Eurostat,

• Malta recorded the sharpest growth at 3.8% quarter-on-quarter, followed by Greece (+2.7%).
• Ireland (-5.1%), Austria (-2.7%), Italy (-1.9%), and France (-1.4%) saw the strongest quarterly declines.

GDP Components

• Household final consumption expenditure decreased by 3%, while gross fixed capital formation rose by 1.6%.
• Exports increased by 3.5%, with imports rising by 4.1%.
• Changes in inventories had a positive contribution to GDP along with gross fixed capital formation.
• Government final expenditure also delivered a slightly positive contribution to GDP.

Euro Area Employment

• The number of employed persons increased by 0.3% in the euro area in Q4.
• In the 3^rd quarter, employment had risen by 1.0%.
• For the year 2020, employment decreased by 1.6%, however.

France

From France, nonfarm payrolls fell by just 0.1% in the 4^th quarter, following a 0.2% decline in the 3^rd quarter.

From the U.S

It was another particularly quiet session, with no material stats to provide the majors with direction late in the day.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a particularly bearish day for the auto sector on Tuesday. Continental tumbled by 7.37%, with Daimler and Volkswagen falling by 1.12% and by 1.48% respectively. BMW had a more modest 0.33% loss on the day.

It was also a bearish day for the banks. Deutsche Bank slid by 3.81%, with Commerzbank falling by 2.58%.

From the CAC, it was a bearish day for the banks. BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole fell by 1.24% and by 1.51% respectively. Soc Gen led the way down, however, sliding by 2.37%.

The French auto sector found further support following Monday’s rally. Stellantis NV and Renault saw gains of 1.81% and 1.91% respectively.

Air France-KLM and Airbus SE saw relatively modest losses of 1.20% and by 0.26% respectively.

On the VIX Index

It was back into the red for the VIX on Tuesday, marking just a 2^nd day in the red from 6 sessions. Reversing a 3.28% gain from Monday, the VIX fell by 5.65% to end the day at 24.03.

The NASDAQ rallied by 3.69%, with the Dow and the S&P500 rising by 0.10% and by 1.42% respectively.

The Day Ahead

It’s a quiet day ahead on the European economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the European majors with direction through the European session.

From the U.S, inflation figures will influence later in the day.

With a lack of stats from the Eurozone, the European markets will likely take their cue from the Asian session this morning going into the open.

From China, inflation figures for February will draw attention in the early part of the day.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was up by 42 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.