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Economic Calendar:

Thursday, 15th April

German CPI (MoM) (Mar) Final

French CPI (MoM) (Mar) Final

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French HICP (MoM) (Mar) Final

Italian CPI (MoM) (Mar) Final

Friday, 16th April

Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Mar) Final

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Mar) Final

Eurozone CPI (MoM) (Mar) Final

Eurozone Trade Balance (Feb)

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The Majors

It was a mixed day for the European majors on Wednesday.

The DAX30 fell by 0.17%, while the CAC40 and the EuroStoxx600 gained 0.40% and 0.19% respectively.

Corporate earnings results delivered support to the CAC40 and the EuroStoxx600, with LVMH announcing record high sales.

Positive bank earnings results from the U.S also provided support. Results on Wednesday muted the news of the U.S hitting pause on the roll-out of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine over blood clot concerns.

For the DAX, the talk of downward revisions to growth forecasts weighed mid-week, however.

The Stats

It was a busier day on the economic calendar on Wednesday.

Industrial production figures for the Eurozone and finalized inflation figures from Spain were in focus.

In February, industrial production across the Eurozone fell by 1.0%, reversing a 0.8% increase from January. Economists had forecast a 1.1% fall.

According to Eurostat,

  • Production of capital goods fell by 1.9%, energy by 1.2%, durable consumer goods by 1.1%, and intermediate goods by 0.7%.
  • Non-durable consumer goods production fell by a more modest 0.1% in the month.
  • By member state, France (-4.8%), Malta (-3.8%), and Greece (-2.5%) registered the largest monthly declines.
  • Ireland recorded the largest increase, rising by 4.2% in February.

Compared with February 2020, industrial production was down by 1.6%. In January, production had been up by 0.1% year-on-year.

  • The production of non-durable consumer goods slid by 4.3% when compared with February 2020.
  • Capital goods production (-2.2%) and energy production (-1.5%) were also a drag on the headline number, year-on-year.
  • While the production of intermediate goods slipped by 0.1%, the production of durable consumer goods rose by 0.7%.
  • Malta (-10.9%), Estonia (-8.9%), and France (-6.4%) registered the largest decreases when compared with February 2020.
  • By contrast, Ireland (+41.4%) and Lithuania (+9.7%) registered the largest increases year-on-year.

On the inflation front, Spain’s annual rate of inflation accelerated to 1.3% in March, which was in line with prelim figures. In February, inflation had stalled.

The Harmonized Index for Consumer Prices increased by 1.2% in March, which was also in line with prelim figures. In February, the Index had fallen by 0.1%.

From the U.S

It was a relatively quiet day, with economic data limited to import and export price index figures.

The stats had a muted impact on the majors, however.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bearish day for the auto sector on Wednesday. BMW slid by 1.62%, with Daimler falling by 0.82%. Continental and Volkswagen saw relatively modest losses of 0.44% and 0.30% respectively.

It was a bullish day for the banks, however, with U.S corporate earnings results delivering support. Deutsche Bank rose by 0.72%, with Commerzbank ending the day up by 0.89%.

From the CAC, it was a bullish day for the banks. BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole rose by 0.66% and by 0.64% respectively. Soc Gen led the way, however, gaining 1.09%.

It was a mixed day for the French auto sector. Stellantis NV fell by 0.63%, while Renault rose by 1.25%.

Air France-KLM followed Tuesday’s 5.04% slide with a 2.06% loss, while Airbus SE recovered a 1.50% loss with a 1.85% gain.

On the VIX Index

It was back into the green the VIX on Wednesday, marking a 2nd daily gain in 6-sessions.

Reversing a 1.54% fall from Tuesday, the VIX rose by 2.04% to end the day at 16.99.

The NASDAQ and the S&P500 fell by 0.99% and by 0.41% respectively, while the Dow rose by 0.16%.

The Day Ahead

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the European economic calendar. Finalized March inflation figures for France, Germany, and Italy are due out.

Barring a marked upward revision, however, we don’t expect the numbers to provide the majors with direction.

Later in the day, economic data from the U.S will influence, however.

Key stats include the weekly jobless claims, retail sales, and Philly FED Manufacturing PMI numbers.

Other stats due out of the U.S include NY Empire State Manufacturing, business inventory, and industrial production figures. We don’t expect too much influence from these stats, however.

On the day, corporate earnings will also be in focus. Bank of America, BlackRock, Citigroup, and PepsiCo are amongst the big names announcing results later in the day.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was up by 63 points, while the DAX was down by 15 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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