EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis July 1, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD soared and then eased a bit after the release of CPI data. The euro is treading at 1.3655. The euro has strengthened against the dollar on 30 June in early trade despite mixed data signals from the Eurozone, helped by the dollar’s weakness after the negative data surprises from the US in the previous week.  The EUR/USD rose to as high as 1.3660 after the data releases from near 1.3640 prior to that. The pair touched it’s highest since 9 June at the high.  The euro-area inflation rate held steady in June at less than half the European Central Bank’s target, underscoring the challenge faced by Mario Draghi as he tries to stoke prices and ignite growth.

Consumer prices grew 0.5 percent in the year, equaling May’s increase, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. That matched the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 35 economists. Core inflation unexpectedly accelerated.

The data “maintains pressure on the ECB to contemplate even further monetary easing and is somewhat of a surprise after the earlier reported sharp increase in the German HICP reading,” said Martin van Vliet, senior euro economist at ING Groep NV in Amsterdam, referring to Germany’s 1 percent increase of consumer prices in June. “We would expect ECB President Mario Draghi to maintain a dovish tone at Thursday’s press conference, which he may use to unveil details of the TLTROs and to perhaps give an update on the progress of the preparatory work on ABS purchases.”

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data June 30, 2014 actual v. forecast

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Country 

Jul 01 09:30 Belgium

Jul 01 09:30 UK

Jul 01 15:30 UK

Jul 02 09:30 Germany

Jul 03 00:30 Japan

Jul 03 08:30 Spain

Jul 03 08:50 France

Jul 03 10:00 Norway

Jul 03 15:00 US