Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD tumbled as low at 1.0692 as Mario Draghi addressed the markets today. The pair leveled out at 107.30 down just
The EUR/USD tumbled as low at 1.0692 as Mario Draghi addressed the markets today. The pair leveled out at 107.30 down just 13 points. European Central Bank head Mario Draghi is underlining the bank’s willingness to add more monetary stimulus if needed at its December meeting to push inflation higher.
Draghi told members of the European Parliament in Brussels on Thursday that signs of a turnaround in low inflation “have somewhat weakened.”
Low annual inflation — currently zero in the 19 countries that use the euro currency — points to weak demand and makes it harder for indebted companies and countries to recover.
The ECB is purchasing 1.1 trillion euros ($1.2 trillion) in bonds with newly printed money through September, but inflation remains low. Draghi said at the ECB’s last policy meeting on Oct. 22 that the bank would review whether more stimulus was needed.
The euro dropped on Draghi’s remarks, falling to $1.0700 from $1.0745.
The euro has fallen as monetary policy takes different paths in Europe and the United States. The ECB is favoring looser monetary policy — just as the U.S. Federal Reserve contemplates tightening by raising its interest rate benchmark after years of near zero interest rates.
A signal from European Central Bank president Mario Draghi that further policy easing is coming next month drove European markets on Thursday, sparking a brief rebound in stocks and pushing the euro and bond yields lower.
In an address to the European Parliament Draghi said inflation dynamics had somewhat weakened and that a “sustained normalization” of inflation could take longer to achieve than thought.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
NZD |
Business NZ PMI (Oct) |
53.3 |
|
55.4 |
|
||
GBP |
RICS House Price Balance (Oct) |
49% |
45% |
44% |
|
||
AUD |
Employment Change (Oct) |
58.6K |
15.0K |
-0.8K |
|||
AUD |
Full Employment Change (Oct) |
40.0K |
|
-10.4K |
|||
AUD |
Unemployment Rate (Oct) |
5.9% |
6.2% |
6.2% |
|
||
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) (Oct) |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
||
CNY |
New Loans |
514.0B |
800.0B |
1,050.0B |
|
||
EUR |
ECB President Draghi Speaks |
|
|
|
|
||
EUR |
Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) |
|
-0.1% |
-0.5% |
|
||
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
270K |
276K |
|
||
USD |
FOMC Member Bullard Speaks |
|
|
|
|
||
USD |
Fed Chair Yellen Speaks |
|
|
|
|
||
USD |
JOLTs Job Openings (Sep) |
|
5.370M |
5.370M |
|
||
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
|
1.016M |
2.847M |
|
||
USD |
FOMC Member Dudley Speaks |
|
|
|
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Friday, November 13, 2015
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) |
|
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
||
JPY |
Tertiary Industry Activity Index |
|
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
||
EUR |
German GDP (YoY) (Q3) |
|
1.8% |
1.6% |
|
||
EUR |
German GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
||
EUR |
GDP (YoY) (Q3) |
|
1.7% |
1.5% |
|
||
EUR |
GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
||
EUR |
Trade Balance (Sep) |
|
18.2B |
11.2B |
|
||
USD |
Core PPI (MoM) (Oct) |
|
0.1% |
-0.3% |
|
||
USD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) |
|
0.4% |
-0.3% |
|
||
USD |
PPI (MoM) (Oct) |
|
0.2% |
-0.5% |
|
||
USD |
Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) |
|
0.3% |
0.1% |
|
||
USD |
Business Inventories (MoM) (Sep) |
|
0.1% |
0.0% |
|
||
USD |
Michigan Consumer Expectations |
|
84.0 |
82.1 |
|
||
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov) |
|
91.5 |
90.0 |
|
||
USD |
FOMC Member Mester Speaks |
|
|
|
|
||
USD |
Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count |
|
|
572 |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Nov 12 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus
Nov 12 11:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction
Nov 12 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction
Nov 18 11:30 Germany New Eur 5bn Dec 2017 Schatz
Nov 18 10:30 UK 2% 2025 Gilt auction
Nov 18 10:30 Portugal Eur 1-1.25bn; bond auction
Nov 18 15:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 25 Nov
Nov 18 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 24 Nov
Nov 19 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones
Nov 19 10:50 France Auctions BTANs
Nov 19 11:50 France Auctions OATi
Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction
Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov