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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 13, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Nov 12, 2015, 11:17 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD tumbled as low at 1.0692 as Mario Draghi addressed the markets today. The pair leveled out at 107.30 down just

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 13, 2015 – Forecast

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 13, 2015 - Forecast
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 13, 2015 - Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD tumbled as low at 1.0692 as Mario Draghi addressed the markets today. The pair leveled out at 107.30 down just 13 points. European Central Bank head Mario Draghi is underlining the bank’s willingness to add more monetary stimulus if needed at its December meeting to push inflation higher.

Draghi told members of the European Parliament in Brussels on Thursday that signs of a turnaround in low inflation “have somewhat weakened.”

Low annual inflation — currently zero in the 19 countries that use the euro currency — points to weak demand and makes it harder for indebted companies and countries to recover.

The ECB is purchasing 1.1 trillion euros ($1.2 trillion) in bonds with newly printed money through September, but inflation remains low. Draghi said at the ECB’s last policy meeting on Oct. 22 that the bank would review whether more stimulus was needed.

The euro dropped on Draghi’s remarks, falling to $1.0700 from $1.0745.

The euro has fallen as monetary policy takes different paths in Europe and the United States. The ECB is favoring looser monetary policy — just as the U.S. Federal Reserve contemplates tightening by raising its interest rate benchmark after years of near zero interest rates.

A signal from European Central Bank president Mario Draghi that further policy easing is coming next month drove European markets on Thursday, sparking a brief rebound in stocks and pushing the euro and bond yields lower.

In an address to the European Parliament Draghi said inflation dynamics had somewhat weakened and that a “sustained normalization” of inflation could take longer to achieve than thought.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

Business NZ PMI (Oct)

53.3

 

55.4

 

 

  GBP

 

RICS House Price Balance (Oct)

49%

45%

44%

 

 

  AUD

 

Employment Change (Oct)

58.6K

15.0K

-0.8K

   

  AUD

 

Full Employment Change (Oct)

40.0K

 

-10.4K

   

  AUD

 

Unemployment Rate (Oct)

5.9%

6.2%

6.2%

 

 

  EUR

 

German CPI (MoM) (Oct)

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

 

 

  CNY

 

New Loans

514.0B

800.0B

1,050.0B

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)

 

-0.1%

-0.5%

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

270K

276K

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Bullard Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

JOLTs Job Openings (Sep)

 

5.370M

5.370M

 

 

  USD

 

Crude Oil Inventories

 

1.016M

2.847M

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Dudley Speaks  

 

 

 

   

 

eurusd

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, November 13, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)

 

1.0%

1.0%

 

 

  JPY

 

Tertiary Industry Activity Index

 

0.2%

0.1%

 

 

  EUR

 

German GDP (YoY) (Q3)  

 

1.8%

1.6%

 

 

  EUR

 

German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)  

 

0.3%

0.4%

 

 

  EUR

 

GDP (YoY) (Q3)  

 

1.7%

1.5%

 

 

  EUR

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q3)  

 

0.4%

0.4%

 

 

  EUR

 

Trade Balance (Sep)

 

18.2B

11.2B

 

 

  USD

 

Core PPI (MoM) (Oct)

 

0.1%

-0.3%

 

 

  USD

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)

 

0.4%

-0.3%

 

 

  USD

 

PPI (MoM) (Oct)

 

0.2%

-0.5%

 

 

  USD

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)

 

0.3%

0.1%

 

 

  USD

 

Business Inventories (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.1%

0.0%

 

 

  USD

 

Michigan Consumer Expectations

 

84.0

82.1

 

 

  USD

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov)  

 

91.5

90.0

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Mester Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count

 

 

572

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 12 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Nov 12 11:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction

Nov 12 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction

Nov 18 11:30 Germany New Eur 5bn Dec 2017 Schatz

Nov 18 10:30 UK 2% 2025 Gilt auction

Nov 18 10:30 Portugal Eur 1-1.25bn; bond auction

Nov 18 15:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 25 Nov

Nov 18 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 24 Nov

Nov 19 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Nov 19 10:50 France Auctions BTANs

Nov 19 11:50 France Auctions OATi

Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov

 

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