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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 20, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Nov 19, 2015, 11:39 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD added 24 points to 1.0684 but remains lower than trades in the Asian session which saw the euro over 1.07.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 20, 2015 – Forecast

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 20, 2015 - Forecast
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 20, 2015 - Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD added 24 points to 1.0684 but remains lower than trades in the Asian session which saw the euro over 1.07. German Central Banker Weidmann seemed to support the ECB planned stimulus but was a bit dovish on the German economy. -The dollar dipped against the euro after the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s October policy meeting reinforced expectations of an interest rate hike next month.

Most participants of the Federal Open Market Committee anticipated the US economy would be strong enough in December to weather the first rate hike in over nine years, the record of the October 27-28 meeting showed. Some officials believed the economy was already strong enough at that time to justify a hike.

Data since the meeting has backed that: the October employment report showed the strongest surge in job growth all year, a gain of 271,000 payrolls, and the unemployment rate fell to 5.0 percent, a fresh seven-year low.

Expectations elevated that the ECB will deliver further policy stimulus in the coming months, today’s publication of the October ECB meeting minutes could attract significant interest. The dollar struggled against the euro and the yen on Thursday, with some analysts arguing that it will now take more than next month’s expected action on euro zone and U.S. monetary policy to drive the greenback higher.

A bevy of Fed officials also backed investors’ expectations of a rate rise, with Fed President Dennis Lockhart, New York Fed President William Dudley and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester all expressing confidence that the policy tightening, when it comes, will be implemented smoothly for markets.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

PPI Input (QoQ) (Q3)

1.6%

0.1%

-0.3%

 

 

  JPY

 

Adjusted Trade Balance

-0.20T

-0.38T

-0.31T

   

  JPY

 

Exports (YoY) (Oct)

-2.1%

-2.1%

0.6%

 

 

  JPY

 

Trade Balance (Oct)

112B

-292B

-115B

 

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Press Conference  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German Buba President Weidmann  

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE MPC Member Broadbent Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)

-0.9%

-0.5%

1.5%

   

  GBP

 

Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct)

3.0%

3.9%

5.7%

   

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)

-0.6%

-0.5%

1.7%

   

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct)

3.8%

4.2%

6.2%

   

  GBP

 

CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Nov)

 

-10

-18

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB Account of Monetary Policy  

 

 

 

   

 

eurusd

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, November 20, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Monthly Report

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German PPI (MoM) (Oct)

 

-0.2%

-0.4%

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German Buba President Weidmann

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Bullard Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count

 

 

574

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 19 10:30 Spain 0.25% Apr 2018 Bono, 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono, 5.4% Jan 2023

Nov 19 10:50 France Eur 7-8bn; 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT, 0.25% Nov 2020 OAT, 2.25%

Nov 19 11:50 France Eur 1-1.5bn; 0.25% Jul 2024, 1.85% Jul 2027, 3.15% Jul 2032

Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov

Nov 23 12:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

Nov 23 N/A US Holds 2-year note auction

Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov

Nov 24 N/A Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

Nov 24 N/A US Holds 5-year note auction

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 2-year FRN auction

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 7-year note auction

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

 

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