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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 3, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Nov 2, 2015, 14:48 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD gained 6 points on a better than expected manufacturing PMI report along with comments from Mario Draghi over

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 3, 2015 – Forecast

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 3, 2015 - Forecast
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 3, 2015 - Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD gained 6 points on a better than expected manufacturing PMI report along with comments from Mario Draghi over the weekend which seemed to indicate that a December stimulus increase was not a done deal. The euro is trading at 1.1010. The European Central Bank’s massive stimulus program has done little to spur manufacturing growth in the euro zone, a survey showed on Monday, as factories again resorted to slashing prices to drum up trade.

More than half a year after the ECB started pumping 60 billion euros a month of new money into the bloc’s economy through its quantitative easing program, the relatively downbeat survey may make disappointing reading for policymakers.

Markit’s final manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index was 52.3 last month, only slightly up from the September and preliminary October reading of 52.0. It has, however, been above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction for over two years.

However, despite the improvement from the initial flash estimate, growth in Germany’s manufacturing sector hit a three-month low, while it fell to a 22-month low in Spain. There was much better news for Austria and Italy, where the PMI registered a 20 and three-month high respectively, while Greece notched a five-month high of 47.3, although it remained the only country below the 50.0 threshold that signifies expansion. “The Eurozone manufacturing recovery remains disappointingly insipid,” said Markit’s chief economist Chris Williamson. “The October survey is signaling factory output growth of only 2% per annum, a lackluster performance given the amount of central bank stimulus in place.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

AIG Manufacturing Index (Oct)

50.2

 

52.1

 

 

  AUD

 

Building Approvals (MoM) (Sep)

2.2%

2.0%

-9.5%

   

  CNY

 

Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

48.3

47.5

47.2

 

 

  EUR

 

German Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

52.1

51.6

51.6

 

 

  EUR

 

Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

52.3

52.0

52.0

 

 

  GBP

 

Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

55.5

51.3

51.8

   

 

eurusd

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

Japan – Culture Day

  AUD

 

Interest Rate Decision (Nov)

 

2.00%

2.00%

 

 

  GBP

 

Construction PMI (Oct)

 

58.8

59.9

 

 

  NZD

 

GlobalDairyTrade Price Index

 

 

-3.1%

 

 

  USD

 

Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep)

 

-0.9%

-1.7%

 

 

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 03 10:10 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Nov 04 15:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Nov

Nov 04 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 10 Nov

Nov 05 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Nov 05 09:50 France Auctions OATs

Nov 05 10:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

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