GBP/USD Price Forecast: BoE Member Chatter in Focus

It’s another quiet day ahead for the Pound, with no stats to consider on the UK economic calendar.

The lack of stats will leave monetary policy in focus, with Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann and the Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill due to speak today.

Catherin Mann will speak at the LC-MA Forum on current monetary policy issues ‘The rise of inflation and current global monetary policy issues’ (1400 BST).

Huw Pill is speaking at the Sheffield Hallam University in association with the Managing Directors’ Club and the University of Sheffield, ‘The economic situation and monetary policy,’ at 1705 BST.

Expect chatter on the UK economy and forward guidance on monetary policy to influence the GPB/USD pair.

GBP/USD Price Action

At the time of writing, the Pound was up 0.27% to $1.19545.

This morning, the Pound fell to an early low of $1.19086 before rising to a high of $1.19643.

The Pound left the Major Support and Resistance Levels untested early on.

Technical Indicators

Avoiding the $1.1929 pivot would bring the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1.1982 and the Wednesday high of $1.19894 into play.

However, movement will ultimately depend on the US economic indicators due out later today.

An extended rally would test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1.2043 and resistance at $1.2050. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1.2156.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1.1868 into play.

In the event of another extended sell-off, the GBP/USD pair could test the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1.1815 and support at $1.18. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1.1701.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it is a bearish signal.

At the time of writing, the Pound sat below 50-day EMA, currently at $1.20779.

The 50-day EMA dropped back from the 100-day EMA. The 100-day EMA fell back from the 200-day EMA: GBP/USD negative.

A move through R1 would support a run at R2 and the 50-day EMA.

However, following the June 28 GBP/USD fall through the 50-day EMA, the Pound will need to return to $1.20 to avoid testing support at $1.18.

The US Session

All eyes will be on the ADP Nonfarm Employment and weekly jobless claim figures. Upbeat numbers would suggest positive official NFP numbers for tomorrow.

However, we have seen the deviation between the ADP and official numbers that may limit the impact on the GBP/USD pair.