The British pound broke above the significant 1.2750 level during the day on Monday, in a sign of strength. Having said that, I believe this is a function of the US dollar taken a break more than anything along the lines of the British pound strength.
The British pound rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday, breaking above that level to perhaps looking towards the 1.28 level. Ultimately, this is a market that although it might rally, I think that if you are trying to play weakness in the US dollar, there are easier markets to do this in, specifically against the Euro or the Australian dollar. While the British pound did form a neutral candle for the week during the previous week, there were much more supportive looking moves in those markets.
Beyond that, you need to pay attention to the fact that the Brexit is of course causing issues with the British pound, so it creates another layer of problem in this market. Ultimately, I believe that we will find a reason to rally a bit, but there’s far too many issues out there for me to feel comfortable going long at this point. If we make a fresh, new low, then I think the market should then go down to the 1.25 level after that. With this move on Monday, I suspect that there will be plenty of Sellers up there waiting for the first signs of trouble to pounce upon. Because of that, although I would not short this market here, I don’t feel comfortable buying and therefore I would have to take a pass on any type of long position. Overall, the market is one that I am far too cautious in currently, but I do think eventually we will have a great buying opportunity.
Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.