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Barry Norman

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD was flat ahead of Mark Carneys press conference at the conclusion of Super Thursday. The BoE held rates and policy and the inflation report was fairly positive as the Bank saw signs of an improving economy. The pair is trading at 1.5605. Bank of England policy makers voted 8-1 to keep interest rates unchanged. Ian McCafferty was the lone dissenter, who backed a quarter-point rate hike to take the base rate to 0.75%.

Minutes of the meeting, which were for the first time published at the same time as the monthly monetary policy decision, said:

The near-term outlook for inflation is muted. The falls in energy prices of the past few months will continue to bear down on inflation at least until the middle of next year.

The Bank now expects inflation to remain at around zero for at least the next two months, before rising to its 2% target at the end of the monetary policy committee’s two-year forecast period, if interest rates are increased in line with the market’s expectations.

That would imply the first rate rise coming in mid-2016, with borrowing costs climbing to 1.5% by the end of 2017, my colleague Heather Stewart reports.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

Employment Change (Jul)

38.5K

10.0K

7.0K

   

  AUD

 

Unemployment Rate (Jul)

6.3%

6.0%

6.1%

   

  EUR

 

German Factory Orders (MoM) (Jun)

2.0%

0.2%

-0.3%

   

  GBP

 

Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Jul)

7.9%

8.2%

9.6%

 

 

  GBP

 

Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)

-0.4%

0.1%

0.3%

   

  GBP

 

Manufacturing Production (MoM)

0.2%

0.2%

-0.6%

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE Inflation Report

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE QE Total (Aug)

 375B

375B

375B

 

 

  GBP

 

Interest Rate Decision (Aug)

 0.50%

0.50%

0.50%

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE MPC Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, August 7, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Press Conference  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)

 

223K

223K

 

 

  USD

 

Unemployment Rate (Jul)

 

5.3%

5.3%

 

 

  CAD

 

Employment Change (Jul)

 

5.0K

-6.4K

 

 

  CAD

 

Ivey PMI (Jul)

 

52.0

55.9

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 06 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Aug 06 11:10 France Auctions OATs

Aug 10 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 13 Aug

Aug 11 11:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt

Aug 12 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Aug 2025 Bund

Aug 13 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Aug 19 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Sep 2017 Schatz

Aug 19 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Aug 20 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Aug 20 11:30 UK Auctions 4.25% 2036 Gilt

Aug 21 17:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 Aug

 

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