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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis February 6, 2013, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD is trading at 1.5707 weakening as markets shift back towards the US dollar. The currency rallied temporarily
The GBP/USD is trading at 1.5707 weakening as markets shift back towards the US dollar. The currency rallied temporarily after a stronger than expected PMI services -51.5 vs. expectations of49.5, which provided some relief to the increasingly bearish UK growth outlook. However, the rally faded moving midday. The focus for GBP is turning towards Mark Carney’s appearance in front of the Treasury Select Committee on Thursday ‐ the same day as the BoE policy announcement, where markets expect no change to the current policy and asset purchase stance. There was little market action today and the new remains focused on Spain and Italy. A host of problems facing Britain’s pound has triggered a flare in activity in the usually sleepy sterling options market as nervous investors seek protection against further sharp falls in the currency. A dramatic pick-up in demand for sterling implied volatility — a measure of expected price swings — suggests investors are worried the pound’s recent steep slide has further to go.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data February 5, 2013 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Time |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Feb. 05 |
00:30 |
|
AUD |
|
|
House Price Index (QoQ) |
1.60% |
|
0.30% |
|
-0.10% |
||
|
|
00:30 |
|
AUD |
|
|
Trade Balance |
-0.43B |
|
-0.80B |
|
-2.79B |
||
|
|
03:30 |
|
AUD |
|
|
Interest Rate Decision |
3.00% |
|
3.00% |
|
3.00% |
|
|
|
|
03:30 |
|
AUD |
|
|
RBA Rate Statement |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
09:30 |
|
GBP |
|
|
Services PMI |
51.5 |
|
49.8 |
|
48.9 |
|
|
|
|
10:00 |
|
EUR |
|
|
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.8% |
|
-0.5% |
|
-0.1% |
||
|
|
12:00 |
|
RUB |
|
|
Russian CPI (MoM) |
1.0% |
|
0.8% |
|
0.5% |
|
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Feb. 06 |
11:00 |
EUR |
0.9% |
-1.8% |
|
|
Feb. 07 |
06:45 |
CHF |
-14 |
-17 |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
0.9% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
0.8% |
-0.3% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-8.9B |
-9.2B |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-2.1% |
-2.4% |
|
|
|
11:00 |
EUR |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
|
12:00 |
GBP |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
|
12:00 |
GBP |
375B |
375B |
|
|
|
12:45 |
EUR |
0.75% |
0.75% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-1.2% |
2.9% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
3.0% |
-1.9% |
|
|
Feb. 08 |
05:30 |
CNY |
2.0% |
2.5% |
|
|
|
05:30 |
CNY |
-1.6% |
-1.9% |
|
|
|
05:30 |
CNY |
1.0% |
0.8% |
|
|
|
08:15 |
CHF |
2.0% |
2.9% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-46.0B |
-48.7B |
Upcoming Government Bond
Date Time Country
Feb 06 10:10 Sweden
Feb 06 10:30 Germany
Feb 06 14:00 US
Feb 07 09:30 Spain
Feb 07 12:00 Norway
Feb 07 15:30 Sweden
Feb 07 09:50 France
Feb 07 16:30 Italy
Feb 08 11:30 Belgium
Feb 08 16:30 Italy
Feb 11 10:30 Germany
Feb 12 09:10 Holland
Feb 12 09:30 Spain
Feb 12 10:10 Italy
Feb 12 10:10 Norway
Feb 12 10:30 Belgium
Feb 12 15:30 UK
Feb 12 18:00 US
Feb 13 01:30 Japan
Feb 13 10:10 Italy
Feb 13 10:30 Germany
Feb 13 15:30 Sweden
Feb 13 18:00 US
Feb 14 10:10 Sweden
Feb 14 10:30 UK
Feb 14 16:00 US
Feb 14 18:00 US
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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