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GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 6-10 2014, Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 24, 2015, 23:00 UTC

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:   The GBP/USD took a nose dive late in the day on Friday to trade at 1.5971 down by 174 points after the US dollar

GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 6-10 2014, Forecast

GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 6-10 2014, Forecast
GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 6-10 2014, Forecast
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:  

The GBP/USD took a nose dive late in the day on Friday to trade at 1.5971 down by 174 points after the US dollar climbed and weak UK data all week long. Traders are waiting for the BoE meeting this week. In September, uncertainty around the Scottish election and a broad rally in the USD weighed heavily on the British pound (GBP). Sentiment deteriorated and the large net long position was sold off in September with the CFTC reporting a flat GBP position by month end. Technicals are providing little in terms of guidance. Fundamentally the BoE is likely to be the first of the G4 to enter its hiking cycle, accordingly, once the broad USD rally eases, the GBP should retrace some its recent losses.

The pound saw its biggest weekly drop in 15 months, sinking below $1.60 for the first time since November, as signs the U.K. economic recovery is fading damped bets on higher interest rates. The pound dropped the most in almost a month against the dollar yesterday as the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 5.9 percent, boosting speculation Federal Reserve policy makers are moving closer to raising their benchmark rate.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

 Historical: From 2011 to Present

Highest: 1.6618 USD on Aug 19, 2011

Average: 1.5764 USD over this period

Lowest: 1.4832 USD on Mar 12, 2013

gbpusd

Events You Should Be Monitoring This Week:

CAD                      Ivey PMI

NZD                      NZIER Business Confidence

JPY                        Monetary Policy Statement

AUD                      Cash Rate

AUD                      RBA Rate Statement

JPY                        BOJ Press Conference

GBP                       Manufacturing Production m/m

CAD                      Building Permits m/m

USD                      FOMC Meeting Minutes

AUD                      Employment Change

AUD                      Unemployment Rate

GBP                       Asset Purchase Facility

GBP                       Official Bank Rate

GBP                       MPC Rate Statement

USD                      Unemployment Claims

EUR                      ECB President Draghi Speaks

CAD                      Employment Change

CAD                      Unemployment Rate

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Oct 07 06:00 Swiss Announces details of optional bond auction on Oct 08

Oct 07 09:00 Norway Bond auction

Oct 07 09:15 Austria RAGB auction

Oct 07 9:30 UK Auctions 3.5% 2045 Gilt

Oct 07 15:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 10

Oct 07 17:00 US 3Y Note auction

Oct 08 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Oct 2019 Bobl auction

Oct 08 09:30 Swiss Bond auction (for decision)

Oct 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP

Oct 08 17:00 US 10Y Note auction

Oct 09 09:03 Sweden I/L bond auction

Oct 09 17:00 US 30Y bond auction

Oct 10 09:10 Italy BOT auction

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