Gold and Silver Technical Analysis: Peace Hopes Lift Metals Ahead of Jobs Data

Gold (XAU) rose on Friday as investors recovered from the waning inflation fears and declining interest rate forecasts. Spot gold climbed $4,725 to approach over 2% weekly increase. The rebound hints at investors resuming their interest in gold as a safe bet, but it remains vulnerable to U.S.-Iran headlines. The ceasefire was tested most when both sides fired shots at each other near the Strait of Hormuz. But the market took a breather when both sides indicated that the situation should not boil over.

The main driver for gold is still the link between war, oil, inflation and interest rates. Since the beginning of US-Iran war, gold has fallen by over 10% due to rising concerns about inflation as oil prices have increased. If inflation risk increases, the Fed may keep rates higher for longer. That does not bode well for gold because it is not a yield asset. But if a U.S.-Iran peace deal becomes more likely, oil prices could settle, inflation pressure could reduce and gold could get some support. That is why the market is tuning in to the peace news, not the war news.

Silver (XAG) also rebounded from the $72 to hit the $80 resistance. The rally in silver was stronger than gold as the easing of fears of US-Iran war increases risk sentiments and increases the expectations for better industrial demand. But silver might still be volatile as the market awaits the U.S. employment report today. A weak jobs report could boost hopes for Fed rate cuts, which supports gold and silver. A better report may help revive the rise in yields and further moderate the metals’ gains.

Gold Technical Analysis: Bulls Test Key Resistance After Strong Rebound

The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price rebounded from the strong support of $4,500. After this rebound, the price hit the resistance of the 100-day SMA at $4,765. This resistance of $4,765 is now the intersection of the 50 and 100-day SMA. The price is required to break this level to initiate the next rally.

A break above the 50 SMA at $4,800 will likely take the price toward the key level of $4,860. As long as the price remains below $4,860, spot gold may remain in consolidation phase between $4,500 and $4,860. A break of any of these levels will define the next move.

Despite this consolidation, the rebound from the $4,500 level was constructive and if the price breaks above $4,860, it will indicate strong surge in the gold market.

This constructive price action is also observed in another chart that shows the formation of an ascending broadening wedge pattern. The rebound from $4,500 was exactly from the support of the ascending broadening wedge line, which suggests a move toward $4,800. A break above this area will likely trigger the next rally in gold.

This bullish momentum is also evident on the 4-hour chart that shows the formation of constructive price action above $4,400. Overall, the price is consolidating between $4,500 and $4,860 and requires a breakout of either level to find the next move.

Silver Technical Analysis: Recovery Gains Traction but Breakout Still Needed

The daily chart for spot silver also shows very constructive price action above $72. The price failed to break below the $72 level after forming a bullish hammer candle on 23 March 2026 at the major support area.

This rebound from the $72 level indicates a bullish price pattern and suggests a constructive move toward the $90 to $95 region in the next few days. However, if the price fails to break above $83, it will likely consolidate silver prices between $70 and $80 for the next few sessions.

On the other hand, the silver market is showing strong consolidation around the support of the ascending broadening wedge. The price is also moving around a trend line that shows uncertainty for the next move.

However, as long as the price holds the $61 support in spot silver, the next move in silver will likely be higher toward $90. As long as the price remains below the $95 area, the silver price may show further consolidation.

Bottom Line

Gold and silver are taking a turn for the better as inflation concerns wane and peace hopes rise, but both metals must find clear breaks to solidify a new bull market. The gold price must break above $4,860 and silver must break above $90 to keep the bullish momentum. The next move will likely be determined by the U.S.-Iran news, oil prices and the U.S. jobs report. But the recovery of gold and silver may resume if the hopes for peace remain intact and pressures on yields persist. But if either the job reports improve or the peace deal fails, both metals could see a return of volatility and consolidate.

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