Analysis and Recommendations: Gold continued to decline giving up $3.10 to trade at 1208.50 against the strength of the US dollar. Gold stayed near
Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold continued to decline giving up $3.10 to trade at 1208.50 against the strength of the US dollar. Gold stayed near 9-month lows, weighed down by broad-based strength in the dollar on growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve is set to tighten monetary policy before other major central banks. Other precious metals also languished, with platinum the biggest faller, sliding to a five-year low at $1 256.30 an ounce early in the session.
A stronger dollar typically pressures assets priced in the US currency, such as commodities. Tightening monetary policy and the prospect of higher interest rates also raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals. Traders are awaiting Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting and key US payrolls data on Friday for further clues on the direction of monetary policy. Wednesday’s US ADP jobs data will be closely eyed ahead of that, analysts say.
Markets in top bullion buyer China are closed for a week from Wednesday for the National Day holiday, weakening support for gold during Asian trading hours and potentially accelerating a fall below $1 200. Investors were also watching the political unrest in Hong Kong for its impact on equities and possible safe-haven bids for gold.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
|
AUD |
AIG Manufacturing Index |
46.5 |
|
47.3 |
|
|
|
JPY |
Tankan Large Mfg |
13 |
10 |
12 |
|
|
|
JPY |
Tankan Non-Mfg |
13 |
17 |
19 |
|
|
|
CNY |
Manufacturing PMI (Sep) |
51.1 |
51.0 |
51.1 |
|
|
|
AUD |
Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) |
0.1% |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
|
|
IDR |
Core Inflation (YoY) (Sep) |
4.04% |
4.33% |
4.47% |
|
|
|
EUR |
Spanish Mfg. PMI (Sep) |
52.6 |
52.2 |
52.8 |
|
|
|
CHF |
SVME PMI (Sep) |
50.4 |
52.0 |
52.9 |
|
|
|
EUR |
Italian Mfg. PMI (Sep) |
50.7 |
49.5 |
49.8 |
|
|
|
EUR |
French Mfg. PMI |
48.8 |
48.8 |
48.8 |
|
|
|
EUR |
German Mfg. PMI (Sep) |
49.9 |
50.3 |
50.3 |
|
|
|
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI (Sep) |
50.3 |
50.5 |
50.5 |
|
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI (Sep) |
51.6 |
52.5 |
52.2 |
||
|
USD |
ADP Nonfarm |
|
210K |
204K |
|
|
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing |
|
57.5 |
58.1 |
|
|
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
|
58.5 |
59.0 |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
|
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
||
|
AUD |
HIA New Home Sales |
|
|
-5.7% |
|
|
|
AUD |
Building Approvals |
|
1.0% |
2.5% |
|
|
|
AUD |
Trade Balance |
|
-0.700B |
1.359B |
|
|
|
GBP |
Construction PMI |
|
63.5 |
64.0 |
|
|
|
EUR |
Interest Rate Decision |
|
0.05% |
0.05% |
|
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
297K |
293K |
|
|
|
USD |
Factory Orders (MoM) |
|
-9.3% |
10.5% |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country Auction
Oct 02 08:30 Spain Auctions 1.4% Jan 2020 & 2.75% Oct 2024 Obligations
Oct 02 08:50 France Eur 7-8bn 1.75% May 2023, 1.75% Nov 2024 & 2.75% Oct 2027
Oct 02 15:00 US Announces details of 3/10Y Note & 30Y bond auctions on Oct
Oct 07 06:00 Swiss Announces details of optional bond auction on Oct 08
Oct 07 09:00 Norway Bond auction
Oct 07 09:15 Austria RAGB auction
Oct 07 9:30 UK Auctions 3.5% 2045 Gilt
Oct 07 15:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 10
Oct 07 17:00 US 3Y Note auction
Oct 08 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Oct 2019 Bobl auction
Oct 08 09:30 Swiss Bond auction (for decision)
Oct 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP
Oct 08 17:00 US 10Y Note auction
Oct 09 09:03 Sweden I/L bond auction
Oct 09 17:00 US 30Y bond auction
Oct 10 09:10 Italy BOT auction