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Gold Fundamental Analysis October 2, 2014 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 24, 2015, 22:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Gold continued to decline giving up $3.10 to trade at 1208.50 against the strength of the US dollar. Gold stayed near

Gold Fundamental Analysis October 2, 2014 Forecast
Gold Fundamental Analysis October 2, 2014 Forecast
Gold Fundamental Analysis October 2, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold continued to decline giving up $3.10 to trade at 1208.50 against the strength of the US dollar. Gold stayed near 9-month lows, weighed down by broad-based strength in the dollar on growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve is set to tighten monetary policy before other major central banks. Other precious metals also languished, with platinum the biggest faller, sliding to a five-year low at $1 256.30 an ounce early in the session. 

A stronger dollar typically pressures assets priced in the US currency, such as commodities. Tightening monetary policy and the prospect of higher interest rates also raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals. Traders are awaiting Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting and key US payrolls data on Friday for further clues on the direction of monetary policy. Wednesday’s US ADP jobs data will be closely eyed ahead of that, analysts say.

Markets in top bullion buyer China are closed for a week from Wednesday for the National Day holiday, weakening support for gold during Asian trading hours and potentially accelerating a fall below $1 200. Investors were also watching the political unrest in Hong Kong for its impact on equities and possible safe-haven bids for gold.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

AIG Manufacturing Index

46.5

 

47.3

 

 

  JPY

 

Tankan Large Mfg

13

10

12

 

 

  JPY

 

Tankan Non-Mfg

13

17

19

 

 

  CNY

 

Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

51.1

51.0

51.1

 

 

  AUD

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)

0.1%

0.4%

0.4%

 

 

  IDR

 

Core Inflation (YoY) (Sep)

4.04%

4.33%

4.47%

 

 

  EUR

 

Spanish Mfg. PMI (Sep)

52.6

52.2

52.8

 

 

  CHF

 

SVME PMI (Sep)

50.4

52.0

52.9

 

 

  EUR

 

Italian Mfg. PMI (Sep)

50.7

49.5

49.8

 

 

  EUR

 

French Mfg. PMI

48.8

48.8

48.8

 

 

  EUR

 

German Mfg. PMI (Sep)

49.9

50.3

50.3

 

 

  EUR

 

Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

50.3

50.5

50.5

 

 

  GBP

 

Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

51.6

52.5

52.2

 

 

  USD

 

ADP Nonfarm

 

210K

204K

 

 

  USD

 

ISM Manufacturing

 

57.5

58.1

 

 

  USD

 

ISM Manufacturing PMI

 

58.5

59.0

 

 

Gold(60 minutes)20141001061047

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

HIA New Home Sales

 

 

-5.7%

 

 

  AUD

 

Building Approvals

 

1.0%

2.5%

 

 

  AUD

 

Trade Balance

 

-0.700B

1.359B

 

 

  GBP

 

Construction PMI

 

63.5

64.0

 

 

  EUR

 

Interest Rate Decision

 

0.05%

0.05%

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

297K

293K

 

 

  USD

 

Factory Orders (MoM)

 

-9.3%

10.5%

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 02 08:30 Spain Auctions 1.4% Jan 2020 & 2.75% Oct 2024 Obligations

Oct 02 08:50 France Eur 7-8bn 1.75% May 2023, 1.75% Nov 2024 & 2.75% Oct 2027

Oct 02 15:00 US Announces details of 3/10Y Note & 30Y bond auctions on Oct

Oct 07 06:00 Swiss Announces details of optional bond auction on Oct 08

Oct 07 09:00 Norway Bond auction

Oct 07 09:15 Austria RAGB auction

Oct 07 9:30 UK Auctions 3.5% 2045 Gilt

Oct 07 15:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 10

Oct 07 17:00 US 3Y Note auction

Oct 08 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Oct 2019 Bobl auction

Oct 08 09:30 Swiss Bond auction (for decision)

Oct 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP

Oct 08 17:00 US 10Y Note auction

Oct 09 09:03 Sweden I/L bond auction

Oct 09 17:00 US 30Y bond auction

Oct 10 09:10 Italy BOT auction

 

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