Gold Price Forecast – Gold Technicals Flashing Blow-Off Top Warning

The last time we saw a similar setup was in 2006—once prices peaked, gold dropped nearly 25% within a month. Those warning signals are flashing again, suggesting an imminent top, and our analysis points to a potential pullback toward the $3,500 level.

Meanwhile, silver has officially broken out of its 45-year cup-and-handle formation. Prices could spike a bit further before correcting, but over the long term, we see a move towards $200 as fair value, especially as a decades-long era of manipulation comes to an end.

Gold’s Blow Off Top Warning

Gold prices have surged over 25% in just two months, indicating the potential for an imminent top followed by a multi-month consolidation. A similar pattern occurred in 2006, when gold peaked and then dropped nearly 25% within a month. I believe a peak is near and should occur between now and the end of October.

Gold’s 2006 Blow Off Top

Gold entered an accelerated bull market in 2005, when prices broke above $500, a level prices never revisited. The initial breakout culminated in a mini blow-off top in 2006, with prices surging 36% in just two months. That peak was followed by a swift 25% correction over about a month, retracing precisely to the 200-day moving average.

Gold Weekly

During the last strong bull market in gold, prices peaked when they extended more than 75% above the 200-week moving average. This occurred in 2006, 2008, and 2011; each time followed by a correction of at least 20%. We’ve just surpassed that threshold again, suggesting a significant pullback could begin at any time. If gold follows a similar trajectory to the 2010s bull market, we could see a surge toward $6,500 in 2027, with a potential move towards $10,000 by around 2030.

Gold

Gold is currently disregarding the upper trendline resistance, suggesting a possible blow-off top similar to 2006. If this pattern continues to unfold, prices could surge to $4,400 – $4,600 over the next week or two, and that peak could be followed by a 20%+ correction, bringing gold back towards $3,500 in very short order.

Silver’s Inflation-Adjusted High

Silver reached a new all-time high in October and as shown in the chart below, prices would need to climb to $200 to match the inflation-adjusted peak of 1980. Given the increasing supply deficits, and demand from AI and solar, I believe silver could not only achieve that level but, in all likelihood, exceed it by the end of this decade.

 Silver Weekly

Silver is officially breaking out of a 45-year cup-and-handle formation, signaling the potential for an epic rally toward its 1980 inflation-adjusted high of $200. We believe silver is undergoing a major repricing after decades of manipulation and suppression. In time, $50 could become the new floor, with the potential for prices to reach $300 or higher as physical shortages emerge later this decade.

Silver

Silver hit $54.14, and prices could surge towards $60.00 if gold continues its blow-off run above $4,400. A pullback towards $40.00 is conceivable if gold corrects 20%+ as expected.

Platinum

Platinum made a fresh high, and prices could spike briefly above $1,800 before correcting back towards $1,300.

GDX

Miners have reached the $85.00 price target set by the 4-year rounded bottom pattern, and any further upside from here should be considered a bonus. If gold rises to between $4,400 and $4,600 over the next week or two, I would expect that move to mark a top, likely followed by a sharp correction of 20% to 25%. Such a pullback in gold would probably trigger an even steeper decline in mining stocks.

GDXJ

The strong uptrend in juniors continues, and we could see another 5% to 10% of upside if gold enters a blow-off phase, reaching between $4,400 and $4,600.

SILJ

Silver juniors hit fresh highs, and more upside is possible if spot silver continues to blast higher. How high is anybody’s guess, but I imagine prices will top out with silver and gold before the month’s end.

Bitcoin

We’re halfway through October, and Bitcoin is down 5% for the month. Prices are currently testing a key confluence of support around $107,000, a level that aligns with the “Trump Pump” highs and the 200-day moving average.

A sustained breakdown below this area would strongly support the case that the 4-year cycle high was set on October 6th at $126,300. However, a definitive top cannot be confirmed until we see consistent closes below the 50-week EMA, which currently sits at $99,900.

In Closing

Precious metals and miners are likely approaching significant peaks in October, which could be followed by a sharp and fast correction of 20% or more.

Gold confirmed an accelerated bull trend in 2024, with silver, platinum, and mining stocks following suit in 2025. These trends are still in their early stages, and we anticipate significantly higher prices by 2030.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.