Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – August 1, 2018 Forecast

Gold is trading lower shortly before the regular session opening, but it’s actually putting in a mixed performance. It’s also trading inside yesterday’s range which indicates investor indecision and impending volatility.

At 1121 GMT, December Comex Gold is trading $1232.00, down $1.60 or -0.13%.

This morning, traders are dealing with the threat of additional tariffs on China which is helping to support the U.S. Dollar while putting a lid on gold prices. Traders will also have to deal with the Fed at 1800 GMT. It is expected to leave interest rates unchanged as may actually leave its policy unchanged also. However, investors will be looking for clues about inflation, the number of rate hikes and any possible signs that the central bankers are becoming increasingly concerned over a global economic slowdown due to the on-going trade disputes.

Gold traders should also note that the market has not posted a new low for the year since the news that money managers and hedge funds had turned net short in the market, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

We had mentioned several times that being net short could be viewed as a contrarian indicator for gold bulls.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1221.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through $1244.70 will change the main trend to up.

The short-term range is $1221.00 to $1244.70. Its 50% level or pivot at $1232.90 is controlling the price action and the direction of the market.

The main range is $1278.20 to $1221.00. If the trend changes to up then look for a test of its retracement zone at $1249.70 to $1256.40.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early trade, the direction of the December Comex gold futures contract today will be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at $1232.90.

A sustained move under $1232.90 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could lead to a test of an uptrending Gann angle at $1230.00. If this price fails then look for the selling to extend into a pair of uptrending Gann angles at $1225.50 and $1223.30. The latter is the last potential support angle before the $1221.00 main bottom.

A sustained move over $1232.90 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger a surge to the upside with the first resistance angle coming in at $1237.70. This angle is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into a cluster of levels including a downtrending Gann angle at $1244.20, a minor top at $1244.60 and a main top at $1244.70.