Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – March 6, 2019 Forecast

Gold futures are trading slightly better shortly after the regular session opening after giving back most of its earlier gains. The early session strength was likely fueled by oversold conditions and buyers who came in on Tuesday to defend the next main bottom at $1281.50. Capping the market’s gains are firm U.S. Treasury yields and U.S. Dollar. Lower demand for risk may be providing some support.

At 13:53 GMT, April Comex gold is trading $1285.90, up $1.20 or +0.09%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1281.50 will reaffirm the downtrend. The market is in no position to change the main trend to up, but it is in the window of time to form a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. This could lead to the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.

The main range is $1209.30 to $1349.80. Its retracement zone at $1279.60 to $1263.00 is the primary downside target. Since this zone represents value, aggressive counter trend buyers could show up on a test of this zone. Closing price reversal bottoms often start following the test of major retracement zones.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on yesterday’s close and today’s early price action, the direction of April Comex gold on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the long-term uptrending Gann angle at $1284.30.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1284.30 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum then we could see a near-term counter-trend rally with the steep downtrending Gann angle at $1309.30 the next major upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1284.30 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the main bottom at $1281.50, followed by the 50% level at $1279.60. Look for a technical bounce on the first test of this level.

If $1279.60 fails to stop the selling then look for a potential acceleration to the downside with the next target the Fibonacci level at $1263.00.

Closing Price Reversal Bottom Set-up

A trade through $1282.00 will indicate increased selling pressure, but recovering $1284.70 and turning higher for the session will put the gold market in a position to form a closing price reversal bottom.