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James Hyerczyk

Gold futures are edging higher on Monday on light trading volume after a missile attack in Yemen over the weekend fanned geopolitical concerns and boosted the metal’s safe-haven appeal, while buying ahead of the Year also lent support. However, a stronger U.S. Dollar is helping to cap gains. Trading volumes were low with U.S. markets closed for a bank holiday.

At 11:14 GMT, February Comex gold is trading $1559.80, down $0.50 or -0.03%.

In other news, speculators cut their bullish positions in COMEX gold contracts in the week to January 14, data showed.

Daily February Comex Gold

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending lower. The main trend will change to down on a move through $1536.40. A move through $1613.30 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is down. This is controlling the momentum. A trade through $1564.20 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum back to the upside.

The main range is $1453.10 to $1613.30. Its retracement zone at $1533.20 to $1514.30 is the value area.

The short-term range is $1613.30 to $1536.40. Its retracement zone at $1574.90 to $1583.90 is the first upside target area.

The minor range is $1564.20 to $1536.40. Its 50% level or pivot at $1550.30 is support.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the February Comex gold market the rest of the session on Monday will be determined by trader reaction to the minor top at $1564.20.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1564.20 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a pullback into the minor pivot at $1550.30. If this level fails as support then look for an acceleration to the downside. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main bottom at $1536.40, followed by the main 50% level at $1533.20.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1564.20 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into $1574.90 to $1583.90.

This is a key area on the chart. Sellers are likely to come in on a test of this area. They are going to try to form a potentially bearish secondary lower top. Buyers are going to try to take out $1583.90 in an effort to resume the uptrend.

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