Based on the early trade, the direction of December Comex gold market on Tuesday will be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at $1232.90.
Gold futures are inching lower in a quiet trade early Tuesday. The market is also posting an inside move for a second consecutive session, indicating investor indecision and impending volatility. Traders are waiting to hear from the Bank of Japan later today and the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday before committing to a position.
At 0456 GMT, December Comex Gold futures are trading $1231.20, down $0.40 or -0.03%.
Once again, the price action will be primarily driven by the direction of U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar.
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1244.70 will change the main trend to up. A move through $1221.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.
The minor trend is also down. A trade through $1226.30 will signal the return of sellers after a couple of days of sideways trading.
The short-term range is $1221.00 to $1244.70. Its 50% level or pivot at $1232.90 is controlling the near-term direction.
The main range is $1278.20 to $1221.00. If the trend changes to up then look for a test of its retracement zone at $1249.60 to $1256.40.
Based on the early trade, the direction of December Comex gold market on Tuesday will be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at $1232.90.
A sustained move under $1232.90 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could pressure the market into $1226.30. Taking out this level could trigger a spike into $1221.00. The daily chart is wide open under this bottom with the next major target $1162.00.
A sustained move over $1232.90 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum, we could see a surge into $1244.70, followed closely by $1249.60.
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.