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Gold Price Prediction – Prices Rebound as Inflation Starts to Rise

David Becker
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Gold prices moved higher on Tuesday despite a rally in the dollar. Gold prices surged against the Euro, as it appears that inflation is on the rise. Fed Chair Gerome Powell in a speech in Boston said that the Fed has been able to keep inflation in check by managing expectations.  Amazon raise its minimum wage to $15 per hour on Tuesday which could be the large increase in wage inflation the Fed was finally looking for.

Technical Analysis

Gold prices moved higher rising up to trend line resistance that comes in near 1,208.  Support on the yellow metal is seen near the 10-day moving average near 1,196. Additional support is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 1,182. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in the black with a rising trajectory which points to higher prices.

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Powell Believes in Phillips Curve

The Fed believes that the decline in unemployment should be accompanied by a rise in inflation, mainly from wage inflation.  The last few years has seen the drop in unemployment down to 3.8% but no associated surge in wages. Wages are rising at 2% year over year and current interest rates and sentiment are holding wages down. Powell still believe in the Phillips Curve even though the relationship seems to have broken down. Powell said the model isn’t dead. While the Fed has been watching employment costs there have been few pressures from the tariff. On Tuesday Amazon announced that it would be raising it minimum wage to $15 per hour. This is a clear sign of wages on the rise which will likely be match by competitors.

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