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David Becker

It was groundhog day again for gold traders as prices moved higher as the dollar moved lower. This followed a stronger than expected jobless claims report which saw a decline in claims after two consecutive weeks of a higher claim number. US yields moved higher, rebounding slightly from the all-time lows that were hit on Tuesday.

Technical Analysis

Gold prices rose 0.9% on Thursday and are now up 4% for the week after rising 3.5% during the prior week. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at $1,979. Short-term momentum is neutral as the fast stochastic moved sideways and is poised to generate a crossover sell signal.  Medium-term momentum remains positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices. The RSI (relative strength index) broke out to fresh-highs for the current move which is a positive sign and reflects accelerating positive momentum.

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Jobless Claims Move Lower

US weekly jobless claims hit their lowest level of the pandemic area, totaling 1.186 million last week. Expectations had been for claims to remain steady at 1.42 million. The four-week moving average fell by 413,250 to 16.6 million. This was the 20th consecutive week that claims have run above 1 million. The total of those claiming benefits, which lags the current data by two weeks, rose to 32.1 million as of July 18, an increase of 1.3 million from the previous week.

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