Gold (XAU/USD) & Silver Price Forecast: World Gold Council Reports Strong Central Bank Buying

Precious Metals Supported by Strong Official Buying and Persistent Silver Deficit

Gold and silver markets are responding to the Fed’s announcement on interest rates with mixed reactions to the hawkish three-member dissents. After the announcement, markets started to set September expectations to lower, and with the additional tensions in the Middle East, Gold and Silver, are showing Safe Haven tendencies.

In the World Gold Council’s report on Q2’26, shows that the previous 12-month total gold demand remained flat at 1,269 tonnes, while H1’23 gold demand increased year-on year by 2% to 2,522 tonnes. Net gold purchases for Q2’23 saw central banks rebound from a lackluster Q1 with the strongest quarterly purchase of the year at 289 tonnes. Poland purchased 51 tonnes, increasing their gold reserves to 632 tonnes, while the People’s Republic of China continued their gold accumulation buying 33 tonnes. Jewelry purchases were down 17% as gold prices rose and consumers opted out.

Structural supply issues continue to constrain silver. The Silver Institute predicts a shortfall of 46.3 million ounces in 2026, over a 6-year shortfall of greater than 40 million ounces. Most silver is mined with copper, lead and zinc, limiting supply. Most industrial applications of silver, which are burgeoning and difficult to replace, are in solar panels, electric vehicles, electronics and AI, and Data Infrastructure, but manufacturers are working to reduce the amount of silver in the finished goods.

The primary long-term drivers, even as signals in monetary policy shift, continue to be the sustained silver supply shortfall coupled with official sector accumulation.

Gold Technical Analysis: Double Top Pattern Below $4,117 Resistance

Gold seems to be showing exhaustion and the probability of a double top pattern is increasing, as the price has failed to remain above the recent swing high of $4,117. Gold is currently priced at $4,074. The 50-day EMA is $4,063 and the 100-day EMA is $4,071. The moving averages are coming together to provide immediate support. The latest bearish price action is most likely the result of the recent rally and the RSI has relaxed to the 52, showing a loss of bullish momentum, which is bearish.

The first level of support is $4,045 and the second is the confluent zone of support at $3,999. The support at $3,999 consists of a rising trend line and horizontal support. Below this support, the bullish structure is broken and the price is likely to be $3,966.  The resistance at $4,117 is yet to be broken, but once this resistance is breached, the price is headed for $4,157.

As long as Gold is above $3,999 the trend remains positive. The price must breach $4,117 to eliminate the double top pattern or correction before the price is able to reach higher levels.

Silver Technical Analysis: Symmetric Triangle Consolidation

Silver is currently consolidating within the confines of a symmetrical triangle, and the price is currently at $58.40, having just rejected resistance at $59.18. The rising lower trend line supports the price. The 50-day EMA is $58.13 and is below the price, while the 100-day EMA is $58.64 and is providing a barrier to further price advancement. The RSI is around 53, indicating no price action and waiting on a catalyst.

Criterions for immediate support are at the triangle base near $57.98 and then at $56.68. Resistance levels are seen at $59.18 and $60.09, making the key bullish target the major swing high at $60.99.

Silver remains above the inclined trendline which keeps the technical perspective cautiously bullish. A break above $59.18 would confirm a bullish triangle breakout, and the following targets would be $60.09 and $60.99. However, a break below $57.98 would begin to target $56.68.