Nasdaq 100: Nvidia and Chip Stocks Slide on AI Slowdown Talk
$218.29
Key Points:
- AI leaders questioning the pace of the buildout hit Nvidia, memory stocks and data-center suppliers in premarket trading.
- Nasdaq futures fell 1.44% as Nvidia, chips and hyperscalers took AI slowdown talk as a reason to sell.
- Premarket indications put Nvidia below $215.10 and near its 50-day average at $212.58 as AI selling intensified.
Nasdaq Drops as AI Leaders Question the Race
The Nasdaq is not getting hit because of oil. Crude is higher and energy is catching a bid. The selling is coming from the AI complex because the people building the race are now talking about pumping the brakes. Nvidia, memory stocks, chip equipment makers and hyperscalers are all on the weak side before the cash open. The whole trade was priced for faster models, bigger data centers and another round of spending. Monday’s headlines just took that assumption apart.
At 11:42 GMT, Dow futures are trading 52886.00, down 116.00 or -0.22%. S&P 500 Index futures are trading 7684.00, down 43.25 or -0.56%. Nasdaq futures are trading 29256.50, down 427.75 or -1.44%.
Daily December E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index Futures Technical Analysis
December E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index futures are sharply lower during the pre-market session. The main trend is down. The downtrend was reaffirmed earlier today when sellers took out the swing bottom at 29219.75. A trade through 30061.25 will change the main trend to up.
The index is also trading on the weak side of the 50-day moving average at 29601.35, reaffirming the strength of the downtrend. This is new resistance.
The intermediate range is 27493.75 to 30627.00. Its retracement zone at 29060.50 to 28690.75 is the next downside target.
The Biggest Names in AI Handed Sellers the Excuse
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for a slower pace on frontier AI development. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman backed a federal safety framework and said an IPO this year would be a mistake. Elon Musk agreed with Amodei. The market did not need a formal halt to react. It needed the three biggest names in the business questioning the speed of the buildout.
Nobody is saying data centers are going dark. Altman said pacing does not mean stopping. Inference demand is still tight. But AI stocks were priced for acceleration. A slower capability curve changes the spending math and that is all it takes to hit a trade that was leaning the other direction. Altman’s IPO comment adds to the problem. The market has been valuing private AI companies on expectations before they ever go public. A slower path to an IPO does not change Nvidia’s revenue this quarter. It cools the belief that every major AI company is racing toward a massive public-market valuation.
Chips Are Where the Damage Is Showing First
Nvidia was lower in premarket. Intel, Marvell and Micron were down harder. The semiconductors own the expectation that hyperscalers keep ordering. When that expectation takes a hit, chip suppliers get sold first, data-center power names follow, and the cloud companies get clipped because they are the ones writing the checks.
The buyers still have demand and inference shortages on their side. That is not what traders are selling Monday. They are selling the premium attached to faster growth.
NVIDIA is called sharply lower based on the overnight trade. Today’s early opening is expected to be around $213.12, which will put it under the last swing bottom at $215.10 and in a position to test the 50-day moving average at $212.58.
The iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF is called sharply lower based on the overnight trade. Traders are anticipating an opening at about $502.19. This will put the ETF within striking distance of the nearest main bottom at $489.21. A trade through this level will shift momentum to the downside with $464.08 another potential target. Overtaking $535.48 will change the main trend to up.
The ETF is also trading on the weak side of the 50-day moving average at $531.52. This is serving as both resistance and a near-term trend indicator.
Stocks in the News
SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics were sharply lower in South Korea. ASML, Infineon, Siemens Energy and Schneider Electric came under pressure in Europe. The selling ran through memory, chip equipment and power infrastructure across three continents before the U.S. cash market even opened.
Oil Is Adding Rate Pressure on Top
Crude is above $100 after Saudi Arabia shut the pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. WTI was up more than 2% Monday morning while stock futures were falling. Oil is not the reason the Nasdaq is down 1.5% before the open. AI is. But crude above $100 keeps inflation pressure alive heading into this week’s Fed meeting. Fed funds futures are pricing roughly an 86% chance of a hike. Tech is the weight. Oil is the extra rate pressure on top.
What to Watch
The cash opening is the test. Nvidia, Micron, Marvell and the semiconductor group will tell the story first. If chips stabilize while the Dow holds, Monday was a crowded-trade reset and nothing more. The AI bulls still have demand, inference shortages and spending plans. The bears finally have the industry’s own leaders questioning the speed. That is new and the Nasdaq is pricing it in before the bell.
The bias leans bearish on all three. The Nasdaq-100 is below its 50-day moving average at 29601.35 with the trend confirmed down after taking out 29219.75. The retracement zone at 29060.50 to 28690.75 is the immediate target with the 200-day moving average at 27793.00 below.
The semiconductor ETF is approaching its main bottom at $489.21 with $464.08 next. NVIDIA opens under its swing bottom at $215.10 with the 50-day at $212.58 and the August 24 bottom at $207.25 below it. The 200-day at $197.47 is where the damage escalates.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
About the Author
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.
