Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Chase Strength or Wait for Pullback Into Value Zone?

Gold Price Eyes $4192.86 Pivot as Bulls Defend $4000 Support Zone

Spot gold (XAU/USD) is stabilizing on Thursday after a sharp three-day correction from Monday’s all-time high of $4381.44 to a low of $4004.28. Traders are watching closely as the market consolidates between key pivots at $4100.43 and $4162.93, with attention squarely on the minor pivot at $4192.86. A sustained move above that level would signal potential for renewed upside momentum.

At 10:30 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $4107.86, up $8.46 or +0.21%.

The $4000 zone is proving pivotal—not just psychologically but technically. Thursday’s bounce is raising the question: is this a value-driven entry point, or merely a temporary floor before further selling kicks in?

If the bulls can’t hold ground here, downside targets remain clearly defined, with a major pivot at $3846.50 and the 50-day moving average sitting at $3741.61.

That $3846.50–$3741.61 range now marks the near-term value zone, and a failure to build a higher bottom above it would shift bias back toward the bears.

Geopolitical Risk and Trade Tensions Support Safe-Haven Demand

Fresh geopolitical drivers are also in play. Washington’s move to impose new Ukraine-related sanctions on Russian oil firms Lukoil and Rosneft, alongside threats of broader export controls on China, is helping preserve gold’s safe-haven appeal. The Trump administration is weighing measures to restrict exports of software-powered goods to China in response to Beijing’s latest rare earth restrictions.

While gold hasn’t been reacting as aggressively to geopolitics in recent months, traders continue to factor these risks into long-term positioning. “Stubborn geopolitical risks should preserve safe-haven bids,” noted Han Tan, chief market analyst at Nemo.money, although he cautioned that gold may not react with “wild swings” to each headline.

Fed Rate Cut in Focus Ahead of Delayed CPI Print

The market’s attention is now turning to Friday’s delayed U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which could add clarity to the Fed’s next move. Fed Funds futures are already pricing in a near-certain 25-basis-point rate cut at next week’s meeting. With real yields under pressure and central banks continuing to accumulate bullion, the macro backdrop still favors a longer-term bullish view.

Gold Price Forecast: Buy Strength or Wait for Pullback Into Value Zone?

Gold is at a technical crossroads, and the market’s offering bulls a clear choice: chase strength above $4192.86, or wait for a deeper pullback into the $3846.50–$3741.61 value zone. Each path offers a different risk/reward setup.

Holding above $4004.28 keeps the short-term bullish case intact. A breakout through $4192.86 would suggest buyer momentum is rebuilding, opening the door for a push back toward the $4381.44 record high. That’s the higher-risk, higher-momentum trade.

On the other hand, failure to hold $4004.28 shifts the technical bias lower and likely triggers a move into the value zone between $3846.50 and the 50-day moving average at $3741.61. That area represents stronger structural support and may attract longer-term bids — but traders waiting for it risk missing the move if bulls defend higher.

For now, the gold market is coiled. The next directional move out of this $4004.28–$4192.86 range will define whether we’re trading continuation or correction.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.