Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: CPI Data and Trade Jitters Keep Gold Range-Bound

Gold Holds Steady as CPI and U.S.-China Trade Tensions Dominate Trader Focus

Gold is edging higher on Wednesday for the third consecutive session, consolidating above key technical support while traders await critical U.S. inflation data and remain wary over unresolved U.S.-China trade tensions. The metal is holding above the $3310.48 pivot, with price action showing cautious bullish interest but lacking follow-through.

Can the $3310.48 Pivot and 50-Day Moving Average Hold?

Support at $3310.48 remains pivotal. A breakdown below this level would likely expose gold to further downside toward $3277.91, where it aligns with the 50-day moving average at $3274.00. This cluster of support represents a key area where buyers may step in. A sustained hold above $3274.00 could lay the groundwork for a short-term rally, but a move above $3403.63 is needed to confirm a shift in market sentiment toward a more bullish stance.

CPI Data to Influence Fed Policy Expectations

Traders are closely monitoring today’s U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report, scheduled for release at 1230 GMT. The data could clarify the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates. A softer CPI would increase the likelihood of rate cuts, which would typically support gold prices. Conversely, a hotter-than-expected reading could dampen gold’s appeal by reinforcing expectations for prolonged high interest rates.

Trade Deal Headlines Offer Limited Relief

U.S. and Chinese officials announced on Tuesday they had agreed on a framework to restore trade cooperation, including the rollback of China’s export restrictions on rare earths. However, markets showed little enthusiasm, reflecting skepticism over the durability of any agreement. April’s tit-for-tat tariffs and only partial progress since underscore lingering distrust. “Gold should remain supported as long as global trade tensions risk escalating further, or even just staying elevated for longer,” said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity Group.

Gold Prices Forecast: Neutral to Bearish While Below $3403.63

Gold is trading in a tight range, supported by geopolitical risk but held back by technical resistance. The support zone between $3310.48 and $3274.00 will be key—failure to hold above this area could open the door to extended downside. Unless the $3403.63 top is breached, sentiment remains mixed with a neutral-to-bearish near-term bias. Traders should watch both CPI outcomes and trade headlines for confirmation of the next directional move.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.