Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Gold Price Rebounds as Traders Target $4133.95–$4192.36 Zone

Gold Price Holds Higher as Buyers Defend $4082.58 Minor Bottom

Spot gold pushed higher on Wednesday after buyers stepped in at the new minor bottom at $4082.58, a level that stopped just short of the 50-day moving average at $3964.84.

Even without a direct test, the quick bounce showed traders respected that longer-term measure. Gold caught a solid early bid, and the follow-through was strong enough to lift the market above the moving average band at $4065.83 to $4023.35, turning that zone into fresh support ahead of Thursday’s data run.

At 11:38 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $4111.80, up $45.61 or +1.11%.

Gold Analysis: Retracement Zone at $4133.95–$4192.36 Now in Play

With the short-term range running from the $4381.44 high to the $3886.46 low, the retracement zone at $4133.95 to $4192.36 is the next upside target. A break through that zone would put the swing top at $4245.20 back in sight, and clearing that level would leave only the record high at $4381.44 above.

Gold’s ability to push higher while the dollar firms adds weight to the move. The dollar index is up 0.16% at 99.752 and closing in on its 200-day moving average at 99.955. That level stopped the November 5 advance at 100.360, but current momentum suggests it could turn into a breakout trigger if the dollar moves decisively above it.

Dollar Strength Tied to Safe-Haven Buying Ahead of Key U.S. Releases

Traders pointed to steady demand for Treasurys and safe-haven positioning as the dollar held firm. ING strategist Francesco Pesole noted that sentiment currently favors the greenback, with markets preparing for a heavy slate of U.S. data and reassessing the likelihood of a December rate cut. Fed funds futures now show a 47% probability of a 25-bp cut on December 10, up from 42.4% the previous day.

Political pressure resurfaced after President Donald Trump renewed attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, saying he’d “love to get the guy currently in there out.” Powell’s term ends in May, keeping the topic alive heading into next year.

Gold Market Focus: Jobless Claims Spike, NFP and FOMC Minutes Ahead

Jobless claims surged between mid-September and mid-October, heightening the tension ahead of Thursday’s delayed September nonfarm payrolls release. Treasury yields barely moved Wednesday, with the 10-year at 4.117% and the 2-year at 3.573%. Traders will also watch FOMC minutes for clues on whether weaker labor conditions could support a December cut.

Gold Price Forecast: Bias Stays Bullish While $4065.83–$4023.35 Holds

With the strong defense of the $4082.58 minor bottom and a decisive move away from the 50-day moving average, the short-term bias stays bullish. The next critical test is the $4133.95–$4192.36 retracement zone. A drop back below $4023.35 and toward the 50-day MA would soften the setup, but unless that breaks, buyers remain in control.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.