Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Price Stalls – Breakout or Breakdown Ahead?

Gold reached a high of $3,345 on Thursday before it began to fall. Support at Wednesday’s low was broken before a low for the day was established at $3,279. That sets up a potential one-day bearish reversal that would trigger on a drop below today’s low. However, a test of support at the 20-Day MA occurred today and it led to an intraday bounce.

20-Day MA Holds as Support

If the 20-Day line can continue to show as support, then gold may have a chance to go a little higher towards the next target around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $3,371. Since that price level is currently aligned with the convergence of two trendlines, there remains a possibility that it is touched before the current advance from trendline support reached last week is complete. Moreover, the convergence suggests a key pivot level where an upside-breakout could be followed by a move as demand kicks in.

Advance Stalls

A decline below today’s low shows short-term weakness and could lead to a test of support around $3,252. Further down is the 50-Day MA, now at $3,191. Along with the lower trendline the 50-Day MA marks potential dynamic support for the uptrend. The current upswing began following the November 2024 lows following a failed upside breakout of a rising trend channel (blue) on April 11. It reestablishes the integrity of the trend and therefore the possibility of a continuation higher. Subsequently, as long as gold trades above the 50-Day MA, the market is indicating it is prepared to go higher. Also, since the 20-Day MA is being recognized, it provides a shorter-term indicator for strength or weakness.

Weekly Closing Will Provide Clue

It is interesting to note that the two previous weekly upside breakouts failed, and each week ended with the price of gold below the prior week’s high. In other words, the weekly breakouts were not confirmed. A third weekly breakout occurred this week. The breakout will be confirmed by a weekly closing price above last week’s high of $3,292. One way to think about it is if the breakout confirms the chance of at least reaching the $3,371 price area improves. If this week ends below last week’s high, consolidation within the declining channel may prevail.

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