Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: $3,366 Resistance in Play Before NFP

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) edged lower during Thursday’s Asian session, dipping to $3,350 amid improved global risk appetite following a new U.S.–Vietnam trade agreement.

The announcement, which includes a 20% reduction in U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese imports and expanded tariff-free access for U.S. firms, bolstered investor sentiment and reduced safe-haven demand.

Silver (XAG/USD) followed suit, retreating 0.33% to $36.43 after briefly testing near-weekly highs. The pullback came as markets interpreted the trade developments as a signal of easing global tensions, prompting modest rotation out of defensive assets like gold and silver.

Dovish Fed Signals and Labour Weakness Cushion Metals’ Downside

Despite the softer tone, both metals remain underpinned by rising expectations of a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve. The ADP private employment report showed a surprise loss of 33,000 jobs in June—the first monthly decline in more than two years. This follows a weaker-than-expected JOLTS report earlier in the week, reinforcing signs of cooling in the U.S. labour market.

“The labor market is clearly softening, and the Fed may not wait much longer to respond,” said Sarah Mendez, senior macro strategist at Alta Investments. “A weak NFP print on Friday could accelerate expectations of a rate cut as early as September.”

As of Thursday, Fed funds futures suggest a 25% probability of a July rate cut, with market pricing implying a 75% chance of easing by the September FOMC meeting.

While trade optimism has trimmed near-term upside, underlying macro uncertainty and dovish policy shifts continue to anchor demand for precious metals. Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to be the next major catalyst, with markets bracing for increased volatility.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold hovers near $3,366 as traders await U.S. jobs data. Silver holds above $36.33. Fed rate cut bets limit downside despite risk-on sentiment.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $3,361 after clearing a key downtrend resistance and holding above both the 50-day EMA ($3,333) and 200-day EMA ($3,338). This breakout confirms a bullish trend shift, supported by a sharp bounce from the $3,297 level earlier this week.

Price action is now approaching the horizontal resistance at $3,366, a level that previously triggered strong selling.

The ascending trendline from the June 28 low reinforces upward pressure, with consistently higher lows forming. A sustained close above $3,366 could pave the way for $3,393 and $3,422. If bulls fail to break through this resistance, downside support lies at $3,327. Momentum remains constructive as long as the price holds above EMAs and trendline support.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading around $36.80 after breaking above $36.33 resistance, supported by a bullish impulse candle. The price remains above both the 50-EMA ($36.29) and 200-EMA ($36.01), suggesting trend strength and strong buyer control. This rally follows a tight consolidation range and reclaims the mid-June highs, adding to short-term bullish momentum.

The recent move confirms a breakout from a symmetrical consolidation zone, characterised by higher lows since June 26. If the metal holds above $36.33, the next key resistance lies at $37.00, followed by $37.31.

On the downside, a drop back below $36.33 would expose support near $35.88. The bias remains positive as long as the price remains above the rising support line.