Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: $4,532 Holds – Is Gold’s Road to $4,800 Now Open?

Geopolitical Tensions Keep Gold in Safe Haven Demand

Gold is still the go-to choice for a safe harbour because of ongoing tensions in the US-Iran standoff and other turmoil in the Middle East. And with uncertainty seeming to get thicker rather than thinner – all that’s kept investors and central banks -whoever they are – to keep coming back to the yellow metal as an insurance policy against everything going wrong, currency crashes included. In fact, some emerging market central banks – Poland is one of them – are quietly just amassing, even more gold to shift the composition of their reserves away from the dollar since the world is just such a complicated mess. What’s more, governments buying up gold has become a regular thing, gobbling up big chunks of gold mined.

Despite all that – the fundamentals of gold remain pretty solid. Geopolitics are still pretty volatile and we’re still worried about what the Federal Reserve might do with interest rates. And even though oil prices have gone up and up, it’s actually had the side effect of cooling expectations of a rush of rate cuts – and meantime gold’s still basically gold – something to fall back on.

Silver on the other hand has a few less worries – Robust industrial demand from solar panels, electric vehicles and all those other bells and whistles is driving up consumption – which in turn has driven up the deficit in supply over the years – -though the mining output hasn’t been able to keep up.

However, when you come to silver you get a more complicated picture. Because of its hybrid nature, you get all the ups and downs of industrial demand & the price swings this gives you. So it’s more unpredictable than gold – although it is good news for long term bulls, Silver’s industrial uses does make it more susceptible to changes in the economic cycle and commodity costs.

Long term though, both metals are pretty much in the same boat – as more countries move away from the dollar – although silver is also more likely to get buffeted about by the ups and downs of industrial demand.

Gold Price Forecast: Bullish Reversal Brewing Above $4,532 Support

Gold (XAU/USD) is starting to stabilise around $4,594 – just after holding firm at the key 0.382 Fibonacci level at $4,534 which is now acting as a make-or-break point. The bigger picture is a tough one to call, but one thing’s for sure, we’re seeing a corrective phase within a much larger bull run. The price is squeezing itself between a descending trend line which is acting as resistance, and a rising support line which is trying to keep it up.

The result is a potential breakout wedge forming – gets interesting doesn’t it. The 50 EMA has started to flatten at current levels, while the 200 EMA (the one that’s been acting as a cap) continues to loom above as a reminder of the transition that’s taking place.

The RSI has bounced off oversold territory, and is now at 45, which suggests that the sellers are losing steam and buyers are starting to get in on the action. Holding above $4,532 for any length of time could trigger a bit of a recovery towards $4,800 and $4,988.

But, let’s be clear here, a break below $4,532 would open up the gates to $4,368.

Trade Idea: Buy at $4,532, aiming for $4,800, stop-loss below $4,360.

Silver Price Outlook: Bearish Pressure Builds Below $75 Resistance

Silver (XAG/USD) is currently stuck down at $73.45, struggling to find its mojo after being rebuffed by the mid-channel resistance at $75.00. The broader structure here is telling us that the price is slipping below the channel support, which could signal a shift from a bull run to a corrective bearish move. The 50 EMA has turned down and is now acting as resistance, while the 200 EMA (which has been keeping the upside in check) is still hovering above.

We’re seeing the price right now hinging on the horizontal support at $73.30 – a line that’s been a big turning point in the past. But, we also have to factor in that it failed to turn back up above $74.40 – a clear sign that the bulls are losing their grip. The RSI is recovering from oversold but still below 50, which tells us that there isn’t much in the way of buying strength to speak of. Break below $73.30 and we could see a real acceleration in the selling towards $71.20 and $69.00.

Trade Idea: Sell at $73.30, aiming for $71.20, stop-loss above $75.00.