Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Ceasefire Holds — Gold Reclaims $4,735, Silver Hits $80 — Next Breakout?

Gold and Silver Hold Steady as Ceasefire Stability Lets Macro Signals Take Center Stage Once More

On May 7th 2026, gold and silver went about their business in a pretty subdued way – no great hurry, no cause for alarm – as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire continued to hold, with tanker traffic trickling through the Strait of Hormuz again. Some 4 weeks on from its signing, the deal has taken the edge off the acute geopolitical risk premium that had been driving both metals upwards in March and early April, giving investors a chance to take a step back and consider what’s really going on in the wider economy.

Central banks still have a steady hand on the tiller, though – and particularly China, which has been buying gold for nearly 2 years now, without missing a beat. That sort of steady, long-term buying is a big part of the global trend towards reserve diversification – people moving away from the traditional safe-haven assets of old.

Silver, with its industrial side to it, is a bit more of a mixed bag at the moment – with easing safe-haven flows on one hand, but on the other hand, persistent shortages of supply & steady demand from the solar, electronics and EV sectors. According to analysts, the fact that lower energy prices have dialled back a bit on the interest in silver as an inflation hedge isn’t the end of the story – because the long-term structural shortages in the market are still going to underpin the price of the white metal.

So now market attention has shifted on to the upcoming U.S. inflation data and what the Fed is going to do next. And even if the immediate volatility has died down a bit, gold and silver are still as sensitive as ever to any diplomatic setbacks in the Middle East or a change in global risk sentiment.

Gold Spot Reclaims $4,735 – Blue Channel Resistance Tested

Gold is now trading at an impressive $4,734.98 on the 2-hour chart. Having finally broken through the stubborn red 50-period MA, with a string of positive green candles right after bouncing off support at $4,662. It looked like the price was stuck but its certainly made a comeback.

Breaking out of that blue descending trendline from its April peaks, at the same time forming a series of higher lows around the $4,721 barrier. That recent bullish engulfing was a nice rejection of all those lower prices, and with its RSI now above 55 without any warning signs – that’s a nice bit of upside momentum. A Fib retracement from its low in May shows that the 61.8% level has just been cleared at $4,735 – a big deal. Now the resistance clusters at the $4,771-$4,832 channel confluence are looming large overhead.

Volume profile suggests $4,700 is now the new dynamic floor, with buyers pouring in fast. And to make matters more interesting, the structure of the price action is looking up above $4,721 and still firmly inside that overarching declining range.

Trade Idea: We think it’s worth looking to buy at $4,734 targeting a push through to $4,771, and our stop is at $4,721.

Silver Spot Surges to $80.45 – Strong Breakout Above MA

Silver is flying high, trading at a confident $80.45 on the 2-hour chart. It’s had a pretty explosive run, clearing that red MA and the blue trendline resistance. That’s in addition to some beautiful green candles that have it printing bullish continuation after defending that Fib support level at $76.63 – and this is the key bit – creating clear higher lows.

The RSI has made a nice surge past 65, all of which confirms the momentum is picking up nicely. A great white ascending trendline from the recent lows is now providing a solid floor. Next targets are at $80.83, followed by that prior swing high at $82.00.

And volume is backing the move, with rejection wicks at lower levels showing the buyers are in control. One thing thats for sure is the structure has flipped decisively bullish above $78.70, and the momentum is still running high.

Trade Idea: Buy at $80.45 aiming for $82.00 with a stop loss at $79.50.