Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Gold Defends $4,024 Double Bottom as Silver Holds Channel Floor — Next Move?

Precious Metals Fundamentals Rest on Central Bank Buying and Supply Discipline

Gold and silver remain well supported in the markets through continued official accumulation and a lack of significant increase in mine supply as of June 30. Official demand from central banks continues in many countries in the context of higher global debt and changing currency regimes.

Mining production growth in the metals continues to be limited. In the case of gold mine production, there continues to be only limited annual growth as the gold mining industry works through new production projects. The same is true for silver, although some supply remains as a byproduct of other metals mining.

The industrial demand for silver continues to expand as applications for solar, electronic and EV components continue to increase due to the energy transition. The same is true for investment demand, which can include gold and silver ETFs and physical holdings in bullion coins and bars.

Fundamentals for these markets remain a balance of continued official accumulation of bullion, the lack of significant new mine supply and the robust industrial demand for the metals. There is a dynamic interplay between inflation, public fiscal conditions and other macroeconomic factors.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

On the 2H chart, Gold Spot is currently changing hands at $4,024. The price action has seen a series of green continuation candles bouncing along the double bottom near $3,959, following a drop from the swing high at $4,324. This move has been confirmed by bullish engulfing candles and rejection wicks forming a series of higher lows, indicative of buyers absorbing near the $3,959 support area. RSI has moved up over 52, suggesting a bullish sentiment.

Additionally, the volume profile has identified $3,959 to $4,000 as a strong accumulation region. The red 50 moving average around $4,201 is still limiting upside movements. The price structure is now seen as neutral to bullish when above $3,959, within the longer-term decline from the $4,597 high, which will likely continue to hold, particularly given that the Fibo confluence is supporting a short term rebound, as higher lows are printing.

Trade Idea: Buy $4,024, targeting $4,091, with a stop-loss at $3,959.

Silver Spot Rises to $58.93 – Blue Channel Floor Defense on the 2H Chart

On the 2H chart, Silver Spot is trading at $58.93. The price has found a series of green rebound candles defending along the blue ascending channel floor near $57.72 after dropping from the swing high at $69.85. There has been a series of bullish rejection wicks printing higher lows since the swing low at $55.58, highlighting buyer accumulation at the current price.

The RSI is holding near 50, indicating a neutral to bullish sentiment. The volume profile has identified $57 to $59 as an emerging fair value cluster. The red 50 moving average near $64.25 is next in line for resistance. Price structure can still be considered neutral to bullish when above the floor of the channel, despite a longer term decline, as higher lows continue to sustain buy-side interest on pullbacks.

Trade Idea: Buy $58.93, targeting $61.54, with a stop-loss at $57.72.