Grains Bounce Slightly Following Tuesday Selloff

David Becker

Grain prices rebounded slightly on Wednesday in early North American trade. NOPA’s latest crush easily surpassed analyst estimates and became the largest monthly crush on record.  171.858 million bushels were crushed vs analyst estimates of 167.50 million.  Crushing activity was up 11.80% from February and 12.38% more than March of 2017. Meal exports totaled 878,582 tons, up 16.35% month over month but 16.88% less than last year.

Corn Prices

Corn prices generated a dead-cat bounce early following Tuesday’s selloff. Resistance is seen near the  10-day moving average at 386. Support is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 378.  Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

Soybean Prices

Cumulative bushels crushed by NOPA members during the 2017/18 season are 1.119 billion. The USDA is expecting to grow the crush by 3.63% to a new record of 1.970 billion bushels. The 2016/17 crush totaled 1.901 billion bushels. Through March, NOPA crush members have crushed 4.38% more soybeans than last season. This is currently well ahead of USDA projections.

Soybean prices rebounded slightly edging back through support near the 10-day moving average at 1045. Additional support is the 50-day moving average at 1032. Resistance is seen near the April highst at 1067. Momentum is negative to neutral as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in the black with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation. The RSI (relative strength index) also broke down which reflects accelerating negative momentum.

Wheat Prices

Wheat prices rebounded from its recent lows in early North American trade. Prices are forming a bear flag pattern which is a pause that refreshes lower. Resistance at the 10-day moving average at 475. Support is seen near and upward sloping trend line at 450 and then the March lows at 441. Momentum is negative to neutral as the MACD is printing in the black with a downward sloping trajectory which points to consolidation.

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