Is Bitcoin Going To Recover After September Dump?

Bitcoin’s (BTC) year-long rally is losing steam as traders wait for fresh catalysts, with worries over a cooling labor market and persistent inflation adding to the pressure.

The cryptocurrency dropped 1.65% to $111,483 on Thursday, bringing its net losses down to 10.47% from its record high of over $124,500. Its intraday declines accompanied downside moves in the US stock market, while the US dollar rose, pointing to a rising risk-off sentiment.

Can Bitcoin recover at all, or is it pursuing a broader correction in the coming months? Let’s examine.

More Bitcoin Declines May Happen

Bitcoin’s seasonal weakness could be in play again, according to analyst Ted Pillows.

His chart shows that BTC often finds a bottom in September, coinciding with a massive $17.5 billion options expiry on Sept. 26. With max pain sitting at $107,000, history suggests prices may gravitate toward that level before a potential reversal.

The setup raises the odds of another leg down in the near term, especially given the size of the expiry, before bulls can attempt to regain control.

Pillows offers an extreme bear case, wherein the BTC price drops below $100,000 to retest a multiyear ascending trendline support. That floor aligns with the $90,000-$92,000 level.

A growing bearish divergence on Bitcoin’s two-week chart furthers a sell-off scenario, albeit to deeper levels.

In recent years, BTC’s price has been forming higher highs, but its relative strength index (RSI) has been making lower highs, suggesting a weakening upside momentum.

The cryptocurrency could decline toward its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) at around $82,400, down 25% from current price levels.

What Could Change This View?

Holding above $100,000 may enable Bitcoin to pursue another major rebound toward record highs, with the Fibonacci retracement lines hinting at a year-end rally to $150,000 or above.

Analyst Colin anticipates similar upsides while citing an emerging inverse-head-and-shoulders pattern on the four-hour chart.

Bitcoin’s seasonal weakness in September may set the stage for a rebound in the months ahead.

Historically, September has been one of BTC’s weakest performers, with median returns around –3%. Yet October, November, and December consistently flip the script, ranking among the strongest months with double-digit average gains.

This pattern often sees Bitcoin move from consolidation into renewed momentum, culminating in fresh highs by year-end.