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Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis October 23, 2014 Forecast – Silver & Copper

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 02:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Silver fell 176 points today to trade at 17.373 after yesterday’s climb. Silver remains well within its trading range

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis October 23, 2014 Forecast – Silver & Copper

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis October 23, 2014 Forecast – Silver & Copper
Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis October 23, 2014 Forecast – Silver & Copper
Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver fell 176 points today to trade at 17.373 after yesterday’s climb. Silver remains well within its trading range bouncing up and down for weeks but remaining in the 17.25-17.50 range.  Copper added 5 points to trade at 3.033 after more positive data was released after Chinese GDP beat expectations and Japanese trade balance figures were better than expected and Australia inflation beat expectations. This combined with a better than expected housing report from the US yesterday. Precious metals have risen more than 3 per cent this month after tumbling 6 per cent in September in what was its steepest monthly drop since June 2013 following a rally in the US dollar. Outside China, efforts are underway in Europe to revive a flagging economy. The European Central Bank is considering buying corporate bonds on the secondary market and may decide as soon as December with a view to begin purchases early next year.

Since China’s 3Q GDP growth was its slowest since the 2008 Financial Crisis, more people are expecting the government to come up with additional stimulus measures. The latest report from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) showed a significant production surplus during the month of July. Meanwhile, prices also received support after the data revealed an increase of 12% in the world usage in the first seven months of the current year. Moreover, a strong apparent demand from China is cited mentioned in the ICSG report. 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Exports (YoY) (Sep)

6.9%

6.8%

-1.3%

 

 

  JPY

 

Trade Balance (Sep)

-958B

-777B

-949B

 

 

  AUD

 

CPI (QoQ) (Q3)

0.5%

0.4%

0.5%

 

 

  AUD

 

CPI (YoY) (Q3)

2.3%

2.3%

3.0%

 

 

  GBP

 

MPC Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.2%

0.0%

 

 

  USD

 

CPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.1%

-0.2%

 

 

  CAD

 

Retail Sales (MoM)

 

0.2%

-0.1%

 

 

  CAD

 

BoC Monetary Policy

 

 

 

 

 

  CAD

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

1.00%

1.00%

 

Copper(15 minutes)20141022115413
 
Silver(15 minutes)20141022115402

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

RBA Governor Stevens

 

 

 

 

 

  NZD

 

CPI (QoQ) (Q2)

 

0.5%

0.3%

 

 

  CNY

 

HSBC Mfg. PMI

 

50.2

50.2

 

 

  EUR

 

German Mfg PMI

 

49.5

49.9

 

 

  EUR

 

German Services PMI

 

55.0

55.7

 

 

  EUR

 

Manufacturing PMI

 

49.9

50.3

 

 

  EUR

 

Services PMI (Sep)  

 

52.0

52.4

 

 

  GBP

 

BBA Mortgage

 

41.5K

41.6K

 

 

  GBP

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM)

 

-0.2%

0.2%

 

 

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

 

-0.1%

0.4%

 

 

  GBP

 

CBI Industrial Trends

 

-4

-4

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

282K

264K

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 23 11:03 Sweden Sek 1bn 0.5% Jun 2017 I/L bond

Oct 23 17:00 US Announces 2/5/7Y Note & 2Y FRN auctions on Oct 28/29/30

Oct 23 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPei/CTZ auctions on Oct 28

Oct 23 19:00 US USD 7bn 30Y TIPS auction

Oct 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 29

Oct 27 12:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 12M Bubill (Oct 2015) auction

Oct 27 18:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu auctions on Oct 30

Oct 27 12:10 Italy BTPei/CTZ auctions

Oct 28 12:10 Italy BOT auction

Oct 28 19:00 US 2Y Note auction

Oct 29 12:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 29 12:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction

Oct 29 17:30 US 2Y FRN auction

Oct 29 19:00 US 5Y Note auction

Oct 30 12:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Oct 30 19:00 US 7Y Note auction

 

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