NASDAQ 100 Futures forecast for the week of December 10, 2012, Technical Analysis

The NASDAQ 100 futures fell during most of the week as the 2700 level continues to be far too resistive for the market to break out of. You can blame this on the fiscal cliff, the end of the year lack of liquidity, or even the concern about certain technology companies, but quite frankly it looks as if 2700 is a bit of a brick wall if you look at the last six weeks.

One of the biggest hindrances for the NASDAQ 100 to gain overall is going to be the company Apple. Stock in that company has absolutely crater over the last couple of weeks, and as such it has had a real effect on the value the NASDAQ 100. After all it is by far the largest share of that index, and it shows just how vulnerable the index had become once Apple had become so huge.

Nonetheless, nobody’s calling for the disruption of Apple, and certainly technology will still be needed. So having said this, it makes sense to look at this from a more pragmatic point of view as we see quite a bit of support at the 2500 level. If this level gets retested for support, we do think it will hold.

Of course, we have the fiscal cliff headlines out there that can move the markets at any given moment. A lot of different things going on at one point in time in Washington DC, so headlines go back and forth they can move this market at a moment’s notice. With that being said, it does look like until we get above the 2700 level that we simply should not be buying as it looks so resistive currently.

If we managed to break down below the 2600 level, we think that a run to the 2500 level is all but certain at that point. If we get below there, this market could absolutely crater and we would be looking for a print somewhere around the neighborhood of 2250 before the slide stopped.