Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: 7 Weeks of Ceasefire — Can WTI Hit $103 and NatGas Clear $3.05?

Oil and Natural Gas Markets Stabilize as Fundamentals Regain Control

Traders kept a low profile on May 19, 2026. The conditional US-Iran ceasefire was going into its seventh week, tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz had improved incrementally, and a geopolitical risk premium that previously had sent prices soaring and slumping earlier in 2026 was mostly gone. Consequently, the market was refocusing on the traditional balance of supply and demand.

WTI and Brent were reflecting a more global and normal market. Robust US production at near-peak rates, coupled with ongoing OPEC+ output decisions and production fixes around the area, were allowing for relatively normal flows, even if there were still some issues with the full normalization of Iranian and regional supply as a result of the past conflict. Still, in the absence of any major incident that might have led to extended regional shortages, the market was beginning to calm.

Natural gas prices were moving sideways, helped by well-stocked inventories of stored natural gas across the US and Europe due to softer weather during the spring. The ceasefire was easing natural gas shipping issues from the Middle East and allowing for softer natural gas prices in the international spot markets, though longer-term demand in Asia and the EU was still a major support.

Market watchers were looking for the latest US inventory reports as well as any news out of OPEC+ in the days to come; while the truce has so far alleviated supply disruptions in the energy markets, experts cautioned that the truce was tenuous at best, and the possibility of future volatility in the natural gas markets was still very real should diplomatic efforts fall through in the future.

Natural Gas Futures Bounces to $3.02 and Tests Descending Channel Ceiling

Gas prices currently trade at $3.022 on the 4h NYMEX, and has bounced sharply off of the low at $2.78 and are trading with a green candle that has reclaimed the red moving average near the $2.89 level. Gas prices continue to respect the white sloping descending channel, though with some bullish momentum after rejection of the Fibonacci confluence level at current. RSI has climbed higher than 55 and appears to be shifting short term momentum in favor of bulls.

Recent higher lows are forming in a short term base price pattern, and the blue support trendline is continuing to act as a minor support area. The blue upper trendline of the descending channel continues to act as an area of overhead resistance, which is expected to be in the $3.05 to $3.10 area. Price continues to trade bullish as higher volume confirms buyer absorption of any sell orders in the area with an immediate area of support that price holds above at $2.81, in what is a clear multi-week price downtrend.

Buy $3.022, Target $3.05, Stop Loss $2.98.

WTI Crude Oil Breaks $102 and Confirms Blue Channel Bounce

WTI oil is trading around $102.12 on the 2h timeframe, bouncing strongly on a green engulfing formation following rejection of the $99.60 low and recovery of the red 50 MA near $100.65. Price action continues to unfold inside the blue upward sloping channel that began on the mid-April lows. The current higher lows in a bullish trend are confirmed with a recent bullish continuation candle crossing above the pivot level of $101, and RSI has climbed higher than 52 confirming a recovery of bullish momentum.

The current 38.2 % retracement from the May swing high at $100.65 appears to have provided a defense. Price will now test overhead resistance at $102.66 followed by the $104 to $105 level that makes up the top of the blue channel. The recent volume profile has confirmed that price has reclaimed the $100 area as a support zone with buyers now absorbing all supply. WTI crude is looking bullish above $99.60 as the price continues to respect the blue channel.

Buy $102.10, Target $103.00, Stop Loss $100.50.

Brent Crude Oil Holds Above $110 and Maintains Ascending Channel

Brent is trading at $110.49 on 2h and continues to respect the lower blue sloping ascending channel line after a pullback from the $110.60 high. Green rejection wicks continue to hold above the 0.382 Fib retracement level at $103.26 and the price is still making higher lows. The recent red moving average near $108 continues to act as a level of support as price respects the uptrend channel from April.

RSI continues to hold above 50 indicating a bullish to neutral momentum with targets at the current 0.5 Fib level at $105.55 and the subsequent $111.10 to $112 level from the top of the blue channel. Price has continued to hold volume above the $110 level indicating bullish support from buyers with the uptrend channel from April still considered valid with support at the $108.31 level.

Buy $110.45, Target $111.10, Stop Loss $109.50.