Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Market Braces for More Downside if Supports Break

Market Overview

WTI crude hovered near $62 per barrel after four consecutive declines, as markets weighed oversupply risks against broader geopolitical tensions. Iraq signaled a return of 230,000 barrels per day from Kurdistan and raised September exports to 3.4–3.45 million bpd under OPEC+, reinforcing pressure on global balances.

At the same time, European efforts to restrict energy flows, including a proposed LNG import ban and vessel sanctions, added uncertainty to supply chains.

The interplay of rising output and policy-driven constraints highlights a fragile backdrop, leaving energy markets highly sensitive to shifts in both demand outlooks and geopolitical developments.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) trade at $2.80, consolidating after breaking below $2.86 support. The short-term trend remains weak as the price struggles beneath both the 50-EMA ($2.92) and 200-EMA ($2.98). RSI is near 32, signaling oversold conditions, but no clear reversal yet.

Immediate support rests at $2.77, followed by $2.70 and $2.64. If sellers extend control, $2.58 becomes the deeper target. On the upside, recovery above $2.86 could invite a retest of $2.94, where sellers are likely to re-enter. Sustained strength above $2.94 would open $3.01, though momentum indicators still favor caution.

Overall, the near-term outlook leans bearish, with oversold readings hinting at potential short-lived rebounds if support holds.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude (USOIL) is trading at $61.90, holding just above support at $61.71. The broader pattern shows lower highs and pressure against the ascending support trendline. RSI near 35 highlights continued weakness, while price trades below the 50-EMA ($62.77) and 200-EMA ($63.28), reinforcing the bearish tone.

A break below $61.71 exposes $61.19, with stronger support resting around $60.70. On the upside, bulls must defend $62.30 and push through $62.70 to retest $63.80, a key resistance area.

A close above $63.80 could open the way to $64.76, though momentum remains against such a move for now. WTI’s outlook stays heavy, with further losses possible if support levels fail to attract buyers.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude (UKOIL) trades at $66.15 after slipping below the symmetrical triangle structure. The breakdown signals bearish momentum, confirmed by RSI at 38 and price remaining under the 50-EMA ($66.98) and 200-EMA ($67.20). Immediate support is marked at $65.73, followed by $65.07. A decisive break lower could expose $64.70 and $64.20.

On the recovery side, regaining $66.67 is crucial, with resistance layered at $67.49 and $68.64. Momentum suggests sellers remain in control for now, but consolidation may follow after a sharp drop.

A daily close above $67.50 would neutralize the current bearish bias and shift focus back toward the $69.50 zone. Until then, Brent crude remains vulnerable to further downside tests.