Oil and Gas Fundamentals Reflect Supply Discipline and Seasonal Demand
The oil sector continues to be defined by OPEC+ supply discipline and higher production from non-OPEC countries, specifically U.S. shale. Oil market demand is underpinned by summer demand for gasoline and petrochemical feeds. Crude stock changes continue in line with oil market demand at regional storage areas. Crude stocks changed little in the United States in the latest week with key storage centers operating near working minimums. Refined product inventory changes suggest demand continues to reflect economic conditions.
U.S. dry natural gas production continues to set record highs. Higher oil production continues to lead to higher associated gas production, while non-associated wells also contribute to natural gas production. U.S. LNG export volumes also contribute to higher volumes in the system.
Natural gas in storage levels continue to build as working inventory levels remain above historical averages. Power-sector demand varies based on the weather. Overall, U.S. natural gas supply continues to be robust enough to satisfy U.S. demand and export demand for liquefied natural gas.
Natural Gas Futures Hold $3.221 – EMA 50 Defense on 1h
Natural Gas futures holds $3.221 with the EMA 50 holding up the 1h. Natural gas futures has been trading at $3.221 on the 1h NYMEX chart. A mix of green and red candles has been holding the EMA 50 near $3.225 after rejection at the EMA 100 near $3.222. The bullish rejection wicks from the $3.099 low show that the buyers have taken the control on the pullbacks.
The RSI is holding near 46, showing neutral momentum. A cluster of high-volume nodes has been forming near $3.12. The 3.229 to $3.260 area will be a good resistance zone using the 1h fib extension. Natural gas futures has been maintaining a neutral structure above $3.099 while testing the EMA cluster. The buyers are participating in higher lows during the pullbacks.
Trade Idea: Long $3.221 with targets of $3.260, and a stop at $3.12.
WTI Crude Oil Holds $69.09 – EMA 50 Defense on 1h
WTI Crude Oil holds $69.09 with the EMA 50 holding up the 1h. WTI is trading at $69.09 on the 1h. A mix of green and red candles has been holding the EMA 50 near $68.66 after rejection at the EMA 100 near $68.90. The bullish rejection wicks show that the buyers are absorbing the supply at the support levels, and the higher lows are intact.
Natural Gas Price Forecast
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See all Natural Gas forecastsThe RSI is holding near 59, showing neutral to bullish momentum. A cluster of high-volume nodes has been forming near $68.38 to $69.50.
The next resistance will be near $70.11 to $71.21. WTI has been maintaining a neutral-to-bullish structure above the EMA 50, despite the downtrend. The buyers are participating in higher lows during the pullbacks.
Trade Idea: Long $69.09 with targets of $70.11, and a stop at $68.38.
Brent Crude Oil Holds $72.63 – EMA 50 Defense on 1h
Brent Crude Oil holds $72.63 with the EMA 50 holding up the 1h. Brent is trading at $72.63 on the 1h. A mix of green and red candles has been holding the EMA 50 near $72.01 after rejection at the EMA 100 near $72.24. The bullish rejection wicks show that the buyers are absorbing the supply at the support levels, and the higher lows are intact.
The RSI is holding near 63, showing neutral to bullish momentum. An emerging cluster of high-volume nodes has been forming near $72.48 to $73.75.
The next resistance will be near $74.87 to $76.09. Brent has been maintaining a neutral-to-bullish structure above the EMA 50, despite the downtrend. The buyers are participating in higher lows during the pullbacks.
Trade Idea: Long $72.63 with targets of $74.87, and a stop at $72.01.
