Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Eyes $68.99 as OPEC+ Supply Adds Pressure

Market Overview

WTI crude oil retreated to $67 per barrel on Thursday, paring Wednesday’s 3% spike driven by heightened geopolitical tensions. The pullback followed a surprise 3.85 million barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories—the largest in three months—contradicting expectations of a drawdown.

Meanwhile, signals that OPEC+ may raise output by 411,000 barrels per day in August could push 2025’s total supply boost to 1.78 million bpd, equaling over 1.5% of global demand.

While escalating global uncertainties introduced a risk premium, improved trade dialogue between major economies slightly eased supply concerns. Energy markets remain sensitive, with volatility tied to both policy and supply signals.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures (NGQ2025) are trading near $3.50, pressing against a confluence of resistance including a downward trendline and the 50-period EMA at $3.507. The price has formed a rising wedge, supported by a trendline from the June 26 low near $3.30.

This tightening range suggests a potential breakout or breakdown is imminent. A close above $3.516 could open the door toward the $3.627 and $3.751 resistance levels. On the downside, a break below the wedge support may pull prices back to $3.30.

While momentum is recovering, the proximity to the 200-EMA at $3.704 adds pressure. Until a decisive move occurs, price action remains in a consolidation phase near key technical levels.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is trading near $66.92 after reclaiming the 50-period EMA and retesting the $67.00 resistance zone. Price has broken out of a descending trendline but now faces pressure at the 0.236 Fibonacci level. A clear support structure is forming above $65.99, where the ascending trendline converges with previous demand.

The 200-period EMA at $66.93 is acting as dynamic resistance, capping bullish momentum. A sustained move above $67.00 could open the path to $68.99 (38.2% Fib), while a drop below $65.99 may invalidate the breakout and expose $63.96.

The current setup suggests consolidation within a tightening structure, with directional bias hinging on a clean break from this range. (edited)

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude (UKOIL) is trading around $68.55 after rebounding off support near $67.43 and regaining the 50-period EMA at $67.98. The rally paused just below the 200-period EMA ($69.18), now acting as immediate resistance. Price is currently testing a previous supply zone, while the ascending trendline from the June low remains intact.

A break above $69.18 could pave the way toward $70.59, while a failure to hold above $67.43 may lead to a pullback toward $65.92. Candlestick structure shows hesitation, with small-bodied candles signaling indecision at resistance.

For now, price remains within a consolidation band, but the structure favors bulls if $67.43 holds.