Natural Gas News: Price Pulls Back to 200-Day MA as Weather, Inventory Weigh

Natural Gas Slips as Traders Watch 200-Day Moving Average for Clues

U.S. natural gas futures are trading lower early Monday after last week’s failed breakout attempt. After hitting a multi-month high at $4.688 on Thursday, the market has pulled back as sellers took aim at the 200-day moving average near $4.456 — a key level now under pressure. So far, the market hasn’t made a clean break in either direction, and traders are clearly waiting on fresh weather signals before committing.

At 14:41 GMT, December Natural Gas Futures are trading $4.473, down $0.093 or -2.04%.

Will the 200-Day MA Hold — or Fold?

The 200-day moving average is the level to watch. Bulls are trying to hold it, signaling they still believe colder weather is around the corner and demand will follow. Bears, meanwhile, are pressing it hard — betting that a mild start to December keeps a lid on heating demand. If sellers push through with volume, we could see a quick trip to $4.220 or even $4.142 — both 50% retracement levels that would represent deeper profit-taking zones.

The more critical support sits at the 50-day moving average down at $4.014. If that level holds, the market stays in “buy-the-dip” mode. A break below it, though, would likely trigger a deeper unwinding of long positions. Bottom line: the trend is still higher, but we’re at an inflection point.

Forecasts Turn Warmer as Bulls Pause

Weather is keeping the market in limbo. According to NatGasWeather, a brief cold shot will hit the Northeast early this week, but most of the U.S. is warming up into the weekend.

Temperatures will run above normal across both the northern and southern halves of the country, leading to only moderate demand in the near term and low demand thereafter. Over the weekend, new weather data hinted that a warm ridge over the eastern U.S. could linger longer than expected — one of the key risks flagged last week.

That shift in outlook is what’s giving sellers confidence to press the 200-day MA, while bulls are holding off to see if the midday models offer anything colder for early December. The market still expects cold to return, but the timing keeps slipping.

Storage Build Signals Loose Balance

Last Thursday’s EIA report showed a 45 Bcf injection for the week ending November 7, in line with expectations but still reflecting a relatively loose balance. Total storage now stands at 3,960 Bcf — just 6 Bcf below last year but 172 Bcf above the five-year average. That surplus gives bears some cushion, especially if December doesn’t start cold enough to spur strong withdrawals.

Outlook: Profit-Taking Likely Before Next Leg Higher

The near-term bias has turned neutral to slightly bearish. With weather models leaning warmer and the 200-day MA under pressure, we’re likely in for a round of profit-taking before bulls step back in.

Another shot of cold is still expected in early December, and that could set up a better long-side entry — but not until prices back off to more favorable levels. For now, traders are eyeing $4.220–$4.014 as key dip-buying levels.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.