Natural Gas News: Weather Forecast Offers Bulls a Lifeline as Market Straddles Key 52-Week Pivot

Bulls Lose Ground but Hold Key Technical Support on Weekly Close

Natural gas futures slipped this week as record production and near-term mild weather outweighed early bullish catalysts. January Natural Gas Futures settled at $4.743, down $0.029 or -0.61%, despite holding above the 52-week moving average at $4.712. The close above this key technical pivot prevents a breakdown—but for now, the market is stuck between strong supply and the slow build of seasonal demand.

First Weekly Draw Offers Limited Support

The EIA reported a 14 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending November 14, beating consensus expectations of -12 Bcf and reversing the prior week’s bearish 45 Bcf build. The draw, while supportive, failed to ignite bullish follow-through as inventories remain 3.8% above the five-year average. Traders acknowledged the shift in seasonal trend, but the overall storage picture remains comfortable.

Cold Weather Outlook Lacks Immediate Impact

Weather forecasts continued to firm for early December, with models projecting below-normal temperatures across the West and Northeast from November 26–30, and into the central U.S. by December 1–5. However, demand through November 26 is expected to stay light. The timing and intensity of the cold are still too uncertain to force aggressive repositioning, limiting near-term buying interest.

Record Output Keeps Rally in Check

Supply remains dominant. U.S. dry gas production climbed to 111.1 Bcf/day on Friday, up 7.9% year-over-year. The EIA also raised its 2025 production forecast to 107.67 Bcf/day. LNG exports remained strong at 17.7 Bcf/day, and electricity demand rose 5.33% y/y. Despite firm structural demand, elevated output levels continue to suppress upside momentum in the futures market.

Technical Picture: Holding the Line at the 52-Week Average

The market’s close above the 52-week moving average at $4.712 keeps the bullish structure intact—for now. A sustained move higher could open the door to $4.881, followed by resistance at $4.953 and $5.198. However, the failure to hold last week’s gains signals caution. On the downside, if $4.712 fails as support, bears may test the lower band between $4.397 and $4.283.

Short-Term Market Forecast: Neutral with Bearish Tilt

Despite seasonal shifts and a supportive storage print, the weekly loss reflects underlying weakness. Strong production and mild short-term demand continue to weigh on sentiment.

The technical close above the 52-week average prevents a full bearish breakdown, but unless cold weather hits soon, pressure could build toward key support. Traders should expect rangebound trade with downside bias into early next week.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.