Natural Gas Price Forecast: 200-Average Caps $3.57 Surge

Chart Action

Natural gas powered higher on Wednesday, reaching a new rally high of $3.57 and piercing the 200-day moving average at $3.46 for the second consecutive day. Buyers edged past the early-October double top at $3.55, but sellers pushed back, dragging prices below the 200-day line. Trading lingers there now, suggesting a possible close below the average—weakening the breakout unless it holds above both the 200-day and the rising channel’s top line near $3.45.

Trade Setup

October’s double top stalled at a rising channel level, extended by 25% to capture that advance. Today’s push above $3.55 shows minor bullish strength, but a close above $3.46 and $3.45 is needed to confirm the breakout. Without it, the second-day surge fades. Clearing the $3.59 swing high (B) would spark a bullish reversal, building on the rally from the $2.89 swing low (C).

Upside Targets

A $3.59 breakout targets the 25% extended channel top, with a rising ABCD pattern pointing to $3.71 as the initial harmonic goal. The $3.57 high completed a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, so surpassing $3.59 would eye the 78.6% level at $3.82 for further upside. Recent channel tests suggest another approach is plausible before the rally exhausts.

Support Levels

The 20-day moving average at $3.25 anchors key dynamic support. Staying above it preserves the near-term bullish bias, even if today’s close weakens. A drop below signals caution, but the structure favors buyers if this floor holds.

Outlook

The $3.46-$3.45 zone is pivotal – close above to lock in strength and aim for $3.59, or below to test $3.25. Today’s close decides: $3.59 opens $3.71 and $3.82, but a failed breakout keeps sellers active. Momentum tilts upward if support stands—watch the triggers for the next swing.

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