Natural Gas Price Forecast: Moving Average Breakout Improves Bullish Outlook

Natural gas closed above its 50-Day MA for the first time since mid-January on Monday. That is a sign of strength that should see demand increase in the coming days. A teaser occurred today as natural gas rallied above the recent 1.91 minor swing high before encountering resistance at the day’s high of 1.92. An intraday selloff followed back to the lows of the day. Where it closes relative to the day’s range should provide a clue as to current sentiment.

Advance Continues Following 50-Day MA Breakout

There was minor confirmation of strength since the breakout above the 50-Day MA, as the 8-Day MA crossed above the 50-Day today for the first time since mid-January, today. Also, yesterday the 20-Day MA was successfully tested as support for the first time since the price of natural gas rallied back above the 20-Day line on April 1.

That cleared the way for further strengthening, which we saw yesterday and then again today. What happens next will be key though as a failed breakout is always possible. A second daily close above the 50-Day line today would dampen that possibility. Then, we need to see signs of further strengthening if natural gas is going to have a chance at reaching higher targets.

Potential Double Bottom Setup

A rally above the 2.01 (B) swing high will trigger a breakout of a double bottom bullish reversal pattern and a continuation of the current developing uptrend. At that point there would be a higher swing high that would follow the recent higher swing low (C). The first identified target from current levels is the completion of a small rising ABCD pattern at 2.08.

At that price the CD leg of the advance will match the price appreciation seen in the first leg up, marked A to B. Once there is price symmetry a potential resistance zone has been reached. There are also interim price targets on the way up to the double bottom target of 2.50.

Higher Targets

The consolidation high following the large gap down in late-January is at 2.17. However, the more notable 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is at 2.24. That price level takes on a somewhat greater significance since it is also match with prior support at the December swing low.

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