Natural gas markets continue to break down a bit, as we are testing the bottom of the overall range. At this point, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of selling pressure due to the fact that there is a serious lack of demand out there.
Natural gas markets initially tried to recover some of the losses on Thursday but then turned around to show signs of extreme exhaustion. At this point, the market looks very likely to continue to find sellers every time it rallies but I would prefer to see a bigger rally than what we got earlier in the day to start selling. After all, you are going to need to see some area that you can make gains with. After all, the market is extraordinarily cheap at the moment, but there is a massive oversupply out there that will continue to haunt the natural gas traders.
To the upside, I see the 50 day EMA is closer to the $1.70 level, and I think in that general vicinity we will see selling pressure on any type of rally. After all, temperatures are starting to warm up in the United States and Europe, so that will naturally drive down the demand for natural gas anyway. Furthermore, we have far too much in the way of supply out there to think that the market is certainly going to turn around and spike higher. Having said that though, we will get a certain amount of bankruptcies that should send this market higher, but we are probably a few months away from that. As soon as the market starts to sniff out disastrous credit conditions for natural gas suppliers, it’s probably the one we start to see the turnaround. In the meantime, I simply fade rallies still.
Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.