Natural Gas Price forecast for the week of November 20, 2017, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets had a negative week during the past 5 sessions, trying to fill the gap below that sits at the $3.00 level. We have bounced from there, and it suggests that we are going to go higher. However, I think that natural gas markets are going to continue to be very noisy, they typically are. I believe that the $3.25 level above is resistance, and that the next major resistance barrier is probably closer to the $3.57 handle. We are entering a colder time of year in the United States, and therefore we should continue to see more demand for natural gas. This is a seasonal trade, as we typically see support for natural gas in the winter. However, as I said this is seasonal, and that means temporary. Given enough time, I anticipate that we will see exhaustion that we can sell again, which goes with the longer-term oversupply of the commodity.

If we were to roll over breakdown below the $3.00 level, that would be a very negative sign and almost certainly send this market down to the $2.85 level underneath. That area is support as far as I can tell, extending down to the $2.75 level. I have a hard time believing we can break down below that this time of year, so I believe we are much likelier to see higher levels than lower ones. As we have started a bounce already, I believe it’s only a matter of time before the buyers come in and take advantage of the seasonal trade. I have an upward proclivity in this market, and will continue to for the next couple of months I suspect. Look at pullbacks as value, at least until the beginning of January.

NATGAS Video 20.11.17