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David Becker

Natural gas prices attempted to move higher following a smaller than expected build in natural gas inventories. Inventories are rising with an upward sloping trajectory which does not bode well for prices. The weather is expected to remain warmer than normal over the next two weeks through the mid-west and the northeast.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices attempted to rally but ran into resistance near the 10-day moving average at 1.93, and fell back below former trend line support. Support is seen near the June lows at 1.84. Short-term momentum is neutral as the fast stochastic continues to flip flop making buy and sell signals. Medium-term momentum is negative but turning neutral as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the red with a rising trajectory which points to consolidation.

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Inventories Rise Less than Expected

US Natural gas in storage was 2,714 Bcf as of Friday, May 29, 2020, according to the EIA. This represents a net increase of 102 Bcf from the previous week. Expectations were for a 109 Bcf build. Stocks were 762 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 422 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,292 Bcf. At 2,714 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

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