Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Fail at Resistance Despite Rig Count

Natural gas prices attempted to break out on Friday but failed to push through resistance and fell back to short-term support. The natural gas rig count showed a decline in the number of natural gas rigs. In the week prior, the U.S. oil and gas rig count increased by 8.Natural gas rigs fell by three. The total number of active oil and gas drilling rigs in the U.S. is now 114 more than this time last year. The weather is expected to remain warmer than normal for most of the next 2-weeks, which could put some upward pressure on cooling demand.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices moved higher on Friday but were unable to push through trend line resistance. Prices slipped back toward support near the 10-day moving average at 2.95. Short-term momentum has flip-flopped and turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum has shifted negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

The Rig Count Edges Lower

Canada’s overall rig count rose this week by 4. Oil and gas rigs in Canada now sit at 59 active rigs, up 36 on the year. The rig count in the Permian basin increased by 2 this week. At 231 rigs, the Permian’s total rig count is now 56 rigs.