Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rise Closing the Week up 6.2%

Natural gas prices moved higher closing up 1%, and settling higher by 6.2% for the week. The weather is expected to be cooler than normal for most of the mid-west for the next 6-days days and then moderate. In late January through mid-February, significant colder-than-normal temperatures in the Lower 48 states resulted in increased heating demand for natural gas in the United States.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices moved higher on Friday. Resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 2.72. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.56. Medium-term momentum is positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). Prices are overbought. The current reading on the fast stochastic is printing near 94, above the overbought trigger level of 80, foreshadowing a correction.

The weather was cold in January through February

In late January through mid-February, significant colder-than-normal temperatures in the Lower 48 states resulted in increased heating demand for natural gas in the United States, despite an otherwise warmer-than-normal winter. As a result, the winter had larger-than-average winter natural gas withdrawals. Before the cold snap, winter temperatures had been relatively mild, but a combination of increased heating demand, record liquefied natural gas and pipeline exports, and decreased natural gas production contributed to the withdrawal activity during February.