Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices rise despite cooler temperatures

Key Insights

• Natural gas rallied by nearly 7% today.
• The weather is expected to be cooler in the Northern part of the US. 
• Prices rise as Russia cuts off supply.

On Wednesday, natural gas prices moved higher after three days in the red. According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, the weather is expected to be warmer than normal during the next 6-10 days and 8-14 in the South.

However, the weather is expected to become cooler than normal during the next 6-10 days and 8-14 days in the Northeastern part of the United States. Prices decline as the weather becomes cooler and demand decreases. 

The US LNG Export Tracker indicated that LNG exports rose following yesterday’s sharp decline. Furthermore, Russia cut off the natural gas supply to Denmark and Germany as companies like Shell refuse to pay in rubles. As a result, natural gas prices rise. 

Technical Analysis

On Wednesday, natural gas prices broke above the 10-day moving average of $8.57, snapping their three-day losing streak. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average of 8.57.

Resistance is seen near the $9 mark. A break above that could signal upward traction for the commodity. Short-term momentum turns positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal.

Medium-term momentum turned negative as the MACD had a crossover sell signal. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in negative territory with a falling trajectory, meaning downside trade action.