Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Slide as LNG Exports Ease

Inventories are rising keeping downward pressure on prices
David Becker
Natural Gas

Natural gas prices eased on Tuesday as Tropical depression 3, fizzled and now hovering in the Atlantic. Much warner than normal weather is expected to cover the north east over the next 6-10 days which should increase cooling demand. This is expected to ease somewhat over the 8-14 day forecast but remain warm according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. US LNG exports declined in the latest week according to the EIA, which led to a total storage injection that was in line with expectations.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices moved lower on Tuesday but made a fresh high for the week, and a higher low. Support is seen near the July lows at 2.23. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.35. Short term momentum is neutral as the fast stochastic consolidates near the 25 reading which is on the lower end of the neutral range. Medium term momentum is also neutral as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints near the zero index level, with a flat trajectory which points to consolidation.

LNG Exports Declined in the Latest Week

The EIA reports that LNG exports decrease week over week. Nine LNG vessels  with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 32.9 Bcf departed the United States between July 11 and July 17, according to the EIA. Three vessels were loading at terminals on Wednesday, two at Sabine Pass terminal and one at Cameron. Net injections into storage totaled 62 Bcf for the week ending July 12, compared with the five-year average net injections of 63 Bcf and last year’s net injections of 46 Bcf during the same week. Working gas stocks totaled 2,533 Bcf, which is 143 Bcf lower than the five-year average and 291 Bcf more than last year at this time.

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